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Sunday, August 28

28th Aug - Weekend Readings II


Summary: Categories getting blurred as feedback effects are getting stronger. I believe my choice of trying to bloglink “everything” is now a good choice, though this is a lot of work. Beginning week, euro interbank markets and the U.S. payrolls on Friday (followed by a presidential address) will be watched closely. Long weekend coming up because of the U.S. holiday on Sep 4th, so I expect position adjusting towards the end of the week. This might be either a risk-on or risk-off event, depending on the then-current taste and feel.

 CALENDAR SUMMARIES
also take a peek at FT’s beyondbrics, for EM calendar, to be published later on Sunday.


EURO CRISIS
Greece’s second- and third-largest lenders merge. This might mitigate risks of banking runs escalating.

As funding becomes more short-term, the amounts to be rolled become larger. One way out of the mess is exploiting low share prices and buying deposit-rich retail banks.


Full copy of Goldman Sachs’ “The Charts That Matter Next Week” included. Good look at the interest rate markets as well.


FINANCIAL CRISIS
IMF head at Jackson Hole: “World economy entering a dangerous new phase driven by sense that policy makers do not have conviction to take decisions that are needed.”, followed by a to-do list
The world economy: A call to arms – Free exchange / The Economist

At the Jackson Hole symposium, ECB head does not surprise

Efficient: light balance sheet, risk of failure. Stable: heavy balance sheet, capital not at work.

John Mauldin’s latest sees recession, ponders the euro crisis and notices the Fed demographics paper. Nothing new to my followers.
The End of the World, Part 1 – Advisor Perspectives



Optimistic scenario for U.S.: full recovery not until 2017, but even a drop from the projected 3.5% p.a. growth to 3.0% would push the date to 2020.


OTHER
Has a link to the annual survey of tech trends in FX by Streambase


CHINA
In reference to the posts here
http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2011/08/chinas-military-power




DIVERSION
Very interesting article



nice video of the universe
The Known Universe – The Big Picture

Why Are Finland's Schools Successful? – Smithsonian / September




Coming in second or third and out-competing the original innovator is the win.