Summary: Moody’s did not downgrade Italy, but the downgrade is in the works. Nothing of substance announced during the weekend’s meeting, but Greece’s situation is looking really bad – prime minister turned his flight to Washington around and returned to Athens on Saturday, after a chat with his finance minister. FOMC next week. The UBS Rogue Trader-post has been updated.
From Friday evening
Today's Headlines – Between The Hedges
Summary of this week’s events, rated plus or minus.
Weekly Bull/Bear Recap – Rational Capitalist Spectator
Succinct summation of week’s events – The Big Picture
Weighing the Week Ahead: Expecting Magic from the Fed? – A Dash of Insight
FX Options: Vols, Risk Reversals & Pin Risk 12:30 GMT – tradingfloor.com
Country-by-country list
EURO CRISIS
Euro cannot survive in present form, eurobanks grossly under-capitalized, in 2008 governments could sort out banks, but now both have problems, EFSM not enough and substantially more required”
Dismal Optimist-letter: “What Europe should do”
** The Coming Age of Defaults – The Big Picture
Choices: a) Support euro at all costs, does not work, leads to c. b) orderly default of Greece c) split into two euros. Also other interesting discussions.
Banking liquidity vs. solvency – Humble Student of The Markets
“Expect no euro-TALF, more muddling through, crisis worsens”
More on the European Bank Bailout – naked capitalism
“debt problems can be solved through bailouts or default. By promising bailouts in return for fiscal austerity, governments have been pushed toward the prospect of socializing an unbearable amount of private debt.”
The ECB’s Moment of Decision – Project Syndicate
Who will pay – creditors or debtors? Taxpayers or government employees? Germans or Greeks? What is politically tenable?
Europe’s Lehman moment – The Great Debate / Reuters
It's A Bird, It's A Plane, No It's SUPEREFSF! – Zero Hedge
Risk Drifts Lower On News Germany To Delay EFSF Implementation Until 2012, Abysmal Debt Rollover Participation – Zero Hedge
Bailout Rebellion in Germany Heats Up – Zero Hedge
Sol Sanders | Follow the money No. 84 If – Zero Hedge
The newly discovered debt of Madeira is 0.3% of Portugal’s GDP is a good example on how Eurobonds are a dead idea.
Rogue island – alphaville / FT
Hoping to Avoid Crash Landing for Euro – The Source / WSJ
Italy, Enjoyers of Weekends Get a One-Month Reprieve From Moody’s – MarketBeat / WSJ
Insulating the financial sector from the European debt crisis: Eurobonds without public guarantees – voxeu.org
Weekend meeting
“I'd Like To Hear How The United States Will Reduce Its Deficits ... And Its Debts”
Geithner presses EU to act; meets resistance – Moneycontrol
Greece
Citi´s full research piece included
** From the Desk of Peter Tchir: “Is September 20th Greek Default Day?” – EconoMonitor
PM turned his flight to U.S. around, returned to Athens
FINANCIAL CRISIS
Year-old collection of posts discussing the history and future of sovereign defaults
** Repeat: Sovereign Debt Series – Calculated Risk
Maybe buy more long bonds, eliminate reserve interest rate, bond yield ceiling, buy European bonds (would also weaken dollar), higher inflation target, loans to private sector
** Forget Operation Twist: Rosenberg Says Bernanke Will Shock Everyone With What Is About To Come – Zero Hedge
** Forget Operation Twist: Rosenberg Says Bernanke Will Shock Everyone With What Is About To Come – Zero Hedge
10 Steps To Prevent the Next Bank Crisis – The Big Picture
Why nobody went to jail during the credit crisis? – Financial Sense
The UBS rogue event came at a convenient time.
Just what Dr Vickers ordered – alphaville FT
OTHER
ETFs - you were warned – Terry Smith
Highly correlated stock returns are temporary – Pragmatic Capitalism
DIVERSION
Home Pages: Original A-List Technology Sites – The Big Picture
Trade Politics in Middle-Earth – Pileus Blog