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| We're all in this together P = 37% - source: toughmudder |
Last night's post had some nice reads and included my incoherent rant on how the news are currently traded. I'm on Twitter and Facebook, email me for suggestions and requests.
- MoreLiver
To the links:
News (morning) – BTH
News – The Trader
Tomorrow’s Tape – WSJ
Morning Briefing – BNY Mellon
A lack of faith in the EU’s efforts to ‘isolate’ Greece could well be Portugal’s undoing
Daily – Danske (pdf)
A lack of faith in the EU’s efforts to ‘isolate’ Greece could well be Portugal’s undoing
Daily – Danske (pdf)
Market Preview – Saxo
EURO CRISIS
Nomura's Koo Plays The Pre-Blame Game For The Pessimism Ahead – ZH
LTRO is largely a means of buying time and does little to address the underlying issues…new higher capital rules come at a very inconvenient time… Just a matter of time before eurozone investors come to understand this concept and learn to ignore the views of rating agencies operating in ignorance of economic realities
LTRO is largely a means of buying time and does little to address the underlying issues…new higher capital rules come at a very inconvenient time… Just a matter of time before eurozone investors come to understand this concept and learn to ignore the views of rating agencies operating in ignorance of economic realities
The German industrial elite now openly discuss exiting the Eurozone. The question no longer is whether or not to keep Greece in it—the capital markets had already “checked off” that topic long ago, Reitzle said—but what price Germany should pay to stay in it itself
The ECB is Engaging in Massive QE – Credit Writedowns
And despite Draghi’s public statements, this time the central banks and governments are committed to move heaven and earth to prevent such a repeat. Hence the $650 bullion three year ECB loan facility and more if it is needed (which doesn’t solve the underlying problem, but defers it for a long time)…
GREECE
My expectation is that there will be an exchange; that it won’t be particularly successful; that it will trigger CDS; but that all the same it will be good enough for the EU, which will stump up its €30 billion and keep the can going on its bumpy path down the road. A bunch of hedge funds will be left with a large amount of defaulted Greek debt, and will start all manner of litigation, which will go nowhere for the foreseeable future. And no, there’s no way that Greece will pay those hedge funds just so that it can avoid the CDS being triggered.
The Latest Greek Creditor Negotiations Update: Coercive, Yet Not, At The Same Time – ZH
OTHER VIEWS
World Bank: grim and grimmer – beyondbrics / FT
The World Bank warned today that emerging markets face risks at least as great as those of 2008-09 with far less hope of an effective policy response.
Standard Chartered Does Not See A "Quick Move To Further Loosening" In China, Despite Property Correction – ZH
If anything, today’s data is another reason not to expect a quick move to further loosening. The economy is slowing, but not dramatically – so far.
If anything, today’s data is another reason not to expect a quick move to further loosening. The economy is slowing, but not dramatically – so far.
Morgan Stanley Quantifies The Probability Of A Global "Muddle Through": 37% – ZH
A “muddle through” positioning is potentially dangerous: Our main message is that the muddle-through scenario might be the most plausible alternative, but its joint occurrence in the US and Europe is less likely than the result of a coin toss. Uncertainty is bad for multiples.
A “muddle through” positioning is potentially dangerous: Our main message is that the muddle-through scenario might be the most plausible alternative, but its joint occurrence in the US and Europe is less likely than the result of a coin toss. Uncertainty is bad for multiples.
DIVERSION
Five recent articles on the topic.
Open Science And The Econoblogosphere – Krugman / NYT
The traditional model of submit, get refereed, publish, and then people will read your work broke down a long time ago.