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Friday, January 20

20th Jan - Treaty treats

Greek negotiation flowchart by BNP, source WSJ
Here's a shorter morning post: last night's Croatian warning basically ate up all the good material.

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To the links:

News roundup morning – BTH
News roundup – The Trader
Press digests by Reuters: FT, British, WSJ, NYT
Market preview – Saxo
Daily – Danske (pdf)

Morning BriefingBNY Mellon 
  A PSI deal is far from being the beginning of the end to the Greek and broader Euro-zone crisis

FX option vols – Saxo
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
Europe Crisis Tracker – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT

EURO CRISIS
Future EU bail-outs only for treaty signatories, new draft sayseuobserver.com
Giving in to a German demand on the issue, the text - seen by EUobserver - says: "Granting of assistance in the framework of new programmes under the European Stability Mechanism [ESM] will be conditional, as of 1 March 2013, on the ratification of this treaty

What Comes Next In the Greek Debt TalksMarketBeat / WSJ
The market is still generally priced for a deal to be reached. Expectations are that by Monday we’ll know the deets. However, as with everything else about the European debt crisis, it ain’t really over till it’s over.

The EU fiscal draft treaty: in fullThe Telegraph
EMERGING
HSBC Flash China PMI ContractsGlobal Macro Monitor
The third consecutive below-50 reading of the manufacturing PMI suggested that growth is likely to moderate further… We expect more policy easing to stabilise growth

Hungary: Orban caves in on central bank independenceDanske (pdf)
Government will scrap plans to merge the financial regulator PSZAF and the Hungarian central bank (MNB). This effectively means that the Hungarian government has caved into the demands of the IMF and the European Commission and now seems to be guaranteeing the independence of the central bank. 

Emerging Markets Briefer / Jan 2012Danske (pdf)
Surprisingly sunny dawn of 2012 – let’s see if it continues

EMEA WeeklyDanske (pdf)
Turkish and Hungarian rate decisions dominate the next week

DIVERSION
Think QuarterlyGoogle
The Speed Issue

Into the mind of a NeanderthalNew Scientist
What would have made them laugh? Or cry? Did they love home more than we do? Meet the real Neanderthals

My Life in FinanceEugene F. Fama / SSRN
I was invited by the editors to contribute a professional autobiography for the Annual Review of Financial Economics.