Wednesday’s Eurogroup meeting cancelled. They will never get the Greek package through. Is the Big D around the corner? My crisis rules from 24-Jan, or how to know when it is time.
News – BTH
EZ crisis Press Summary – openeurope
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
Europe Crisis Tracker – WSJ
EURO CRISIS: GENERAL
The timetable for Europe (though arguably vulnerable to amends)
On balkanisation and credit claims – alphaville / FT
Citi’s Buiter: In fact, we think the February 9 decision brings the Eurozone much closer to the position of the Rouble Zone following the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Citi’s Buiter: In fact, we think the February 9 decision brings the Eurozone much closer to the position of the Rouble Zone following the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Podcast
EURO CRISIS: GREECE
The rise of the Greek extremes – The World / FT
Still, given the current state of the opinion polls – and the likeliehood of further radicalisation – there is surely no guarantee that any deal that the EU strikes with Greece, will stick after the elections.
The Germans And Paperwork – TF Market Advisors
I still believe a can kick to prepare for an “orderly” default (whatever that is) is the most likely outcome of current deliberations, but the likelihood that the can kicking is over, is increasing by the day.
Greece still needs to identify 325mio of savings, provide assurances that policies will not be changed and complete the negotiations with Finland on collateral. Then the Eurogroup meeting, IMF assessment, ECB’s participation, EFSF…and then all the EZ governments have to agree. Total aid and debt forgiveness 340bn, about as much as Greece had debt at the start of the crisis.
This is not about what is best for Greece. Is is about "face saving" of bureaucrats whose collective faces deserve to be dipped something far more smelly than mud.
EURO CRISIS: RATING CUTS
Credit ratings: A darkening mood – Free exchange / The Economist
The news is a reminder that however better the euro-zone outlook seems now, relative to the mood which prevailed last fall, Europe is anything but out of the woods. These ratings moves will not be the last.
Credit ratings: The bulldog bit – Buttonwood’s / The Economist
Even UK as a currency issuer is not safe: almost a quarter of the debt in issue is in the form of inflation-linked bonds.
EURO CRISIS: IMBALANCES REPORT
Not German enough – alphaville / FT
EU’s first report on economic imbalances (the Alert Mechanism Report) is out. Full pdf here.
EU report: Twelve countries at risk of new economic crises – euobserver.com
According to Il Sole 24 Ore newspaper, Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti, a former EU commissioner, put pressure on the college of commissioners to water down the language of the report ahead of a treasury bonds sale in Rome on Friday.
JAPAN
The BOJ Surprises, Weakens Yen – Credit Writedowns
10trn JPY of QE and an inflation target.
Here’s The News That Really Matters – MarketBeat / WSJ
The BOJ’s move follows fresh QE from the Bank of England, the massive expansion of the European Central Bank’s balance sheet and amid expectations the Fed could still launch more QE despite a better tone to the U.S. economy.
Goldman’s O’Neil: Confident In Bearish Yen Trade After BOJ – MarketBeat / WSJ
OTHER
2012 Non-Predictions – Equities – Macro Man
EM equities will NOT repeat 2011's under-performance of DM equities…Equity Bears will NOT stop trying to argue that earnings will fall as a result of margins contracting from multi-year peaks, but S&P earnings growth will NOT disappoint the consensus of 5.5%...The ASX 200 will NOT reverse its poor relative performance and will remain a laggard of global equity markets.
Another piece of the LTRO puzzle – alphaville / FT
Reserve Bank of Australia’s assistant governor notes that money supplies of major economies are contracting and also that velocity of collateral has dropped
A $360 trillion confidence trick – Finance Addict
On LIBOR’s importance and its manipulation
The European crisis may be providing a mere foretaste of what will likely be the central political debate of the first half of the twenty-first century: how to resolve the tension between global markets and national politics.
It's Not Just Gasoline Consumption That's Tanking, It's All Energy – of two minds
From natgas to electricity.