Here are
the US open briefings and select articles. Bank jogs
are turning into bank runs. Bankia, the recently bailed-out bank is losing
deposits and its stock is down 28% today. All eyes are turning to the ECB, though Germany promising to backstop everything
could also help. Germany will not do that, and probably will
not allow printing - yet. So kiss your TARGET2 receivables goodbye?
For more of my
thoughts and article links, see last night’s US Close: European Roller Coaster and remember to follow ‘MoreLiver’
on Twitter and Facebook.
Frontrunning
– ZH
The Lunch
Wrap – FT
EM New York
headlines – FT
Daily Press
Summary – Open
Europe
David
Cameron: Eurozone “either has to make-up or it is looking at a potential
break-up”
Overnight
Summary – Bank of America / ZH
Morning
MarketBeat: Stocks Still Stuck in Rut – WSJ
Broker Note
Briefing: Wednesday – WSJ
Morning
Take-Out – NYT
AM Dear
Dairy – Macro
and Cheese
US Open: –
Marc to Market
The T
Report – TF
Market Advisors
From
Idiosyncratic to Idiotsyncratic. Greece and HY ETF’s
Pre-market
Commentary – Marketwatch
Pre-Market
Trading – CNNMoney
Pre-Market
– NASDAQ
US Equity Preview – Bloomberg
Earnings
& Events – The
Street
MarketCurrents
– Seeking
Alpha
Debt
crisis: live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
EURO CRISIS: GENERAL
Not a Greek Problem – Krugman
/ NYT
We need a conversion experience here, not in Athens, but in Berlin and Frankfurt. Otherwise, the game is almost over.
We need a conversion experience here, not in Athens, but in Berlin and Frankfurt. Otherwise, the game is almost over.
Eurozone Banks Nearly Collapsed, Says ECB
Director – HITC
A senior executive at the European Central Bank
has admitted eurozone banks were on the brink of collapse last autumn.
The eurozone’s troubles – including the
possibility of Greece’s exit from the union – no longer qualify as a crisis. What looks like
significant instability is really just the slow-motion settling of the
continent’s new economic order.
The Eurozone crisis: Fiscal fragility, external
imbalances, or both?
– voxeu.org
Unsustainable
debt along Europe’s periphery is bringing the euro to breaking point. But this column
argues that this is not simply the result of fiscal ill-discipline. After 2010,
the Eurozone crisis went from a fiscal crisis to a balance-of-payments crisis –
with different prescriptions for policy.
Hume on hold? Consequences of not abolishing EZ
national central banks – voxeu.org
The EZ crisis reveals critical flaws in the
Eurozone’s design. This column argues that failing to abolish national central
banks left the door open for national interests to interfere with the natural
workings of the financial system and Hume’s adjustment mechanism. This flaw –
and the omission of a European Banking Authority with real teeth – will come
back to haunt Europe in the months and years to come.
The Running of the Bank Depositors – The
Reformed Broker
This is what a bank run looks like, this is how
it sounds and how it feels. It's been
happening in Greece in slow-motion for three years now, but the fact that Spain
is seeing a run on Bankia ($1 billion euros pulled since Wednesday), which was
just bailed out last week, means that the pace has quickened.
EURO CRISIS: SPAIN
Nationalized Spanish Bank Plummets On News Of
Bank Run – ZH
Down 28% in
one day
Moody's Warns Spain It Will Downgrade
"More Than 21" Spanish Banks – Expansion – ZH
Google translation The rating agency Moody's announced this morning that the Spanish bank announced in the next 12 hours, as by law, a reduction in its credit rating could affect more than 21 entities. According to several sources, the statement will be released expected at nine in the evening.
Google translation The rating agency Moody's announced this morning that the Spanish bank announced in the next 12 hours, as by law, a reduction in its credit rating could affect more than 21 entities. According to several sources, the statement will be released expected at nine in the evening.
EURO CRISIS: GREECE
This Is The Greek ELA Borrowing Capacity – ZH
JPMorgan: Greek banks have a maximum of €130bn of remaining loan collateral which allows for a maximum of €65bn of additional borrowing from Bank of Greece’s ELA. This corresponds to around 40% of Greek bank deposits which stood at €170bn as of the end of March
JPMorgan: Greek banks have a maximum of €130bn of remaining loan collateral which allows for a maximum of €65bn of additional borrowing from Bank of Greece’s ELA. This corresponds to around 40% of Greek bank deposits which stood at €170bn as of the end of March
ECB Stops Loans to Some Greek Banks as Draghi
Talks Exit – BB
Possible Endings for
the Greek Drama – A
Dash of Insight
My current guess includes the following: 1) The
eventual outcome will include a bit less austerity because of recent election
results 2) European leaders will manage to avoid the very worst outcomes; and
3) The nature of the political process leads to eleventh-hour solutions,
permitting everyone to fear the worst as long as possible.
Debt crisis: Greek euro exit looms closer as
banks crumble – The
Telegraph
A tsunami of capital flight from Greece threatens to
overwhelm the authorities, forcing the country out of the euro before fresh
elections in June.
An adviser to the German government, Professor
Christoph Schmidt, tells Lesley Curwen that Greece must stick to the
terms of its bailout agreement, despite fears that Greek voters will reject
austerity in next month's elections. But Giorgios Christides, the economics
editor of the United Reporters news website, explains why there are
contradictions in the attitude of the Greek electorate. And Julia Pittam
reports on the Cambridge MBA students who are having a laugh with improvisation classes.
Cost of Greek exit from euro put at $1tn – The
Guardian
UK government making urgent preparations to cope with the fallout of a
possible Greek exit from the single currency
Now, that’s not to say that the ECB is not
annoyed by the lack of progress in the Greek bank recapitalisation but we all
know that the correlation of these events does not mean causation.
The Problem with the Eurozone’s
Throw-Greece-from-the-Train Plan Is that its Timing Can’t Be Controlled – EconoSpeak
…no legal procedure by which Greece can be expelled from
the EZ; therefore the strategy has to be one of making retention of the euro so
ruinous for Greeks that they will exit on their own volition. The mechanism is the Target system through
which euros are transferred from one national central bank to another.
Greece’s economic and financial crisis is quickly deteriorating and there is
no strategy – or even a coalition government – to figure out what to do next.
This column looks at the lessons from Argentina’s default in 2001 and argues that Greece’s road to necessary
economic reforms, fiscal sustainability and recovery may be even more daunting.
OTHER
In QE3 waltz, Fed again steps toward easing – MacroScope
/ Reuters
Expectations for a third installment of
quantitative easing, the much-debated QE3, had ebbed with improving economic
data in the first quarter – but are now flowing anew.
Gloom Continues – Kiron Sarkar / The
Big Picture
Summary
views. Greece,
We Are About To Have Another 2008-Style Crisis – Chris
Martenson / ZH
This time I am expecting a coordinated central
bank action that will involve most or all of the major central banks of the
OECD: Japan, UK, US, and Europe….Regardless, more printing is on the way, because the alternative is
the utter collapse of the entire Western banking system. And quite probably a
few governments, too.
*RoRo and the carry trade’s fight back – alphaville
/ FT
There have been rumours of the so-called carry
trade’s demise knocking about for a little while now, but HSBC think it is
staging a quiet comeback and taking a chunk out of RoRo’s (Risk on/Risk off)
importance in the FX markets.
Notes From Ira Sohn Conference Presentations
2012 – market
folly
Notes from the Ira Sohn Conference 2012 – The
Reformed Broker
Chart: air cargo volume points to sharp decline
in global industrial production – ASA
The ratings agency had a look at the 29 global
systemically important financial institutions (or G-SIFIs, a horrible acronym
for banks listed at the bottom of this post), which as a group represent $47tn
in total assets, and estimated that they might need to raise roughly $566bn in
common equity in order to satisfy the new Basel III capital rules
BRICs hit by capital outflows – Sober Look