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Thursday, June 14

14th Jun - US Open: Spain breaks 7%

Spanish 10-year bonds trading above 7%, an euro-era all-time high. Italy also ‘at play’. Greece is almost a side-show at the moment. Will the ECB ‘blink’ and start monetizing PIIGS debt? Or at least, would Germany be so kind and leave the euro? I pushed the post out earlier as usual, and will update this later.

For more articles see last night’s US Close: More bailouts! and follow the recently updated special post Spanish Bailout: The Collection.

Daily US Opening – RanSquawk / ZH
Frontrunning – ZH
The Lunch Wrap – FT
EM New York headlines – FT
Overnight summary – Bank of America / ZH
Today’s front pages – presseurop
Daily press summary – Open Europe
  Eurostat: Interest payments on the bailout will count as public deficit

Morning MarketBeat: Italy Heads Down the Path WSJ
Broker Note Briefing – WSJ
Morning Take-Out – NYT
AM Dear Dairy: Quiet  – Macro and Cheese
The T Report TF Market Advisors

Pre-market Commentary – Marketwatch
Pre-Market Trading – CNNMoney          
Pre-Market – NASDAQ
US Equity Preview – Bloomberg
Earnings & Events – The Street
MarketCurrents – Seeking Alpha

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

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EURO CRISIS
Contractionary Fiscal Contraction, Quantified: European EditionEconBrowser
Deutsche Bank estimated multipliers for several nations: Crisis countries high, core countries low. Just proves the point that austerity will not help.

Winding Down the EurozoneThe Aleph Blog
1) acknowledge that you made a mistake in creating the Eurozone 2) re-introduce individual currencies 3) dealing with bankrupt nations. 4) force an exchange into the underlying currencies.

2012 Eurozone funding requirement by countrySober Look
Spanish banks will have no trouble absorbing this debt…Italy on the other hand will have a tougher time. At €120bn, the nation's requirement is the highest in the Eurozone.

The euro crisis as family dramaOpinion / Reuters
Only the ECB Godfather has what it takes. The central bank might have to abandon some principles, but it has the ability to create enough money to keep governments and the financial system afloat for as long as necessary.

Any Rabbits Left in the Hat?Mish’s
ESM: Subtract Italy crippled with a 120% debt to GDP ratio and Borrowing money at 4-5% to Lend to Spain at 3% and you are under the €100 billion mark. Even including Italy, the fund for 2012 is nearly all spent. What happens if Spain needs €350 billion as per analysis from JPMorgan? What Happens if Italy needs a bailout?

In the shadow of Greek electionsMacroScope / Reuters
Italy moving centre stage, Athens to be given more time on austerity, Cyprus, SNB meeting

EURO CRISIS: BANKS
Banking sector could be 'wiped out' if weakest nations leaveThe Guardian
Analysis by Credit Suisse estimates that up to 58% of the value of Europe's banks could be wiped out by the departure of the 'peripheral' countries

Room for manoeuvre among Eurozone banksvoxeu.org
Europe’s heavily overleveraged banks are now under European Banking Authority orders to rapidly raise their capital-asset ratios. Many fear that this will trigger a contractionary shrinking of assets rather than prudential increases in capital. This column presents new evidence that these fears are unfounded. Eurozone banks have room for manoeuvre.

EURO CRISIS: TARGET2
Germany’s Constitutional ConundrumNew Economic Perspectives

Don’t worry about Target2Felix Salmon / Reuters
But what if the entire eurosystem fell apart, and every country reverted to its own national currency? In that case, it’s still hard to see how there would be much of a hit to Germany.

EURO CRISIS: ECB
Statistics Pocket Book, June 2012ECB (pdf)

Monthly Bulletin, June 2012ECB (pdf)

EURO CRISIS: GERMANY
Germany opens door for crisis solution as Spain downgradedeuobserver
EUobserver understands that the German government is opening up to proposals for a "banking union"

Germany signals shift on €2.3 trillion redemption fund for EuropeThe Telegraph
The German government has begun opening the door to shared debts for the first time in a profound change of policy, agreeing to explore proposals for a €2.3 trillion (£1.9 trillion) stabilization fund in order to stop the eurozone’s crisis escalating out of control.
 
German Vote on ESM Fails; Still Not Ratified by Germany, Austria, Belgium, Estonia, Slovakia, Netherlands; Political Football Over Financial Transaction TaxMish’s
The universal sad state of affairs in politics is that passing something stupid (such as the ESM), requires the passing of something else that is also stupid (in this case the Financial Transaction Tax). In the end, stupidity is inevitably compounded.

Heading for an own-goal Free exchange / The Economist
The danger with such political wrapping is that an FTT will be included, and applied, before it has been properly thought out. German politicians have agreed to something in principle without considering the design, and whether it might actually work.

Merkel Says Germany Leads Crisis Fight, Rejects Quick FixBB
Empty words: “All resources, all measures, all packages will end up being smoke and mirrors if it becomes clear in the end that they extend beyond
Germany’s capacity.”

EURO CRISIS: SPAIN
Spain Bailout Terms: 100 Billion Euros for 15 Years at 3% Interest, No Payment for 5 Years; How to Pay it Back? Hike VAT on ConsumersMish’s
Can someone tell me why taxpayers are responsible for banks making stupid loans?

These Three Spanish Banks Will Be DowngradedZH

Moody's Joins Party, Slashes Spain's RatingMarc to Market

Euro Crisis Deeper With Moody’s Downgrading Spain, CyprusBB

EURO CRISIS: ITALY
A sinking Italy is grasping for directionOpinion / Reuters
Italy, one of the founders of the European Union, is now in the most critical of situations. If many different things do not go well for the bel paese in the next year, it may attract the use of the word “founder” in its other, more sinister meaning: to sink.

Italy Trembling on the BrinkTestosterone Pit
A full-fledged bailout of Italy is a theoretical construct, anyway. As the third largest economy in the Eurozone, it’s too big to get bailed out by the Eurozone. Of the 17 member states, five, if Cyprus is included, are already being bailed out. Leaves 12, including teetering Italy, to pay for them. If Italy falls, the two major countries left standing to bail all of them out would be Germany and France. An impossibility.

OTHER
SNB remains DETERMINED to keep buying your euro!alphaville / FT



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