Google Analytics

Monday, July 2

2nd Jul - US Close: Summit Soured?

Today some very nice articles on European situation, also added them to the Summit post. Bad macro, doubts about the summit results. 'Risk off' coming up next?


Earlier on MoreLiver’s:
Weekender: Weekly Support  weekly roundups and calendars
EU Summit Special all the good ones I’ve found on the summit
Weekender: Trading & Markets quant stuff, stock market views etc
Weekender: Off-Topic crime, psychology etc.


Markets – Between The Hedges
The Closer – alphaville / FT
Market Commentary – A View From My Screens
Tyler’s European Summary – ZH
  Euro Bailout Fatigue
Tyler's US Summary – ZH
  Worst Volume In A Decade As Stocks Eke Out Small Gain

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter or Facebook

EURO CRISIS
The recession in the euro zone is getting worse. New data on manufacturing activity in June show a steady pace of decline in that month.

The Spanish Bank Bailout: Separating the Wheat from the ChaffTF Market Advisors

EURO CRISIS: SUMMIT (see also this)
Who Was The Real Victor in Brussels? Pension Pulse

Finland, Netherlands Oppose EU's Bond-Buying Plan WSJ

It’s an ESMergencyalphaville / FT
Finland and the Netherlands own around 1.8 per cent and 5.7 per cent of shares in the ESM according to Annex II. It isn’t close to the more than 15 per cent stake which they’d need to block ‘emergency’ bond-buying.

Euro Crisis: 366 Days Later PragCap
A look back at the “Greece is saved”, LTRO1, LTRO2 rallies: It is important to understand that the “agreement” reached last week was nothing more than political posturing and is, as usual, long on hope and short on details.

The Failure Of The FirewallMark Grant / ZH
Europe has placed its full concentration on the totally wrong aspect of the problem which has been to ward off the evil spirits of the bond vigilantes instead of on fixing the financial problems of the nations and so the problems continue and worsen…We also learned over the weekend that various takes on the Summit were not all the same as Ms. Merkel’s version differed significantly from the Spanish tale.

The Terrible Cost of Inaction in Europe PIIE
The European leaders this time have offered a more hopeful approach than in the past in both form and substance, but Europe could still be headed in the wrong direction unless the ECB builds an appropriate bridge on the structure of the decisions taken at the June summit and the political process implements those decisions comprehensively and expeditiously.

A Banking Union Baby StepProject Syndicate
Daniel Gros: This incremental approach has worked well in the past; indeed, today’s European Union resulted from it. But a financial crisis does not give policymakers the time that they once had to explain to voters why one step required another. They will have to walk much more quickly to save the euro.

Europe’s bank recapitalisation: The creation of a new stigma?Saxo Bank

Why the EU summit decisions may destabilise government bond marketsvoxeu.org
Paul De Grauwe: Among the questions still remaining since last week’s summit of European leaders is whether the new measures will stabilise government bond markets. This column’s answer is ‘no’.

BAD MACRO
U.S. Manufacturing Contracts For First Time Since July’09Global Macro Monitor

Flash Comment: US - a dismal ISM reportDanske Bank

Global PMI At Three-Year LowGlobal Macro Monitor

Euro Area Slowdown Is Beginning To Impact The Rest Of The WorldZH

Houston, We Have ContractionZH

OTHER
More on GS and the relevance of safe assetsalphaville / FT

Is The Swiss National Bank Faking It?ZH
JPM: What we didn’t know is that approximately half of this intervention was in fact sterilised. This is highly significant and undermines the credibility of the SNB’s claim that it is willing to do whatever it takes to hold EUR/CHF 1.20. For the floor to be credible the SNB needs to surrender control over the Swiss monetary based, i.e. it has to be willing to deliver both unlimited and unsterilised FX intervention. The intervention in May was certainly unlimited; it most definitely was not unsterilised.

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter or Facebook