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| Surprising numbers. |
Previously on MoreLiver’s
9.10. IMF World Economic Outlook (updated again!)
Roundups &
Commentary
US Opening
News And Market Re-Cap – Ransquawk / ZH
Frontrunning – ZH
Overnight Sentiment – ZH
The Lunch Wrap – alphaville
/ FT
Emerging N.Y. headlines – beyondbrics
/ FT
Today’s front pages – presseurop
Daily press summary – Open Europe
Morning MarketBeat: Alcoa’s Good News Comes With
Warning Signs – WSJ
Broker Note Briefing – WSJ
The Euro's Decline and a New Front – Marc
to Market
Four Points on Hump Day – Marc to
Market
US session ahead
Pre-market
Commentary – Marketwatch
Pre-Market
Trading – CNNMoney
Pre-Market
– NASDAQ
US Equity Preview – Bloomberg
Earnings
& Events – The
Street
MarketCurrents
– Seeking
Alpha
Reference
Debt
crisis: live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
EUROPE
Chart of the week: the ECB’s power on Spanish
and Italian bond yields – bruegel
Therefore, some ECB announcements had strong
impacts on the government bond markets, but for not too long. Only time will
tell the medium term impact of the most recent announcement of the OMT, which
will primarily depend on the progress with other aspects of the euro-crisis.
Sherlock Holmes (herein played by Buchheit)
says: debt reprofiling – alphaville
/ FT
Buchheit (who helped mastermind the Greek
restructuring at Cleary Gottlieb) and Gulati on the options now facing the
eurozone’s sovereign debtors and those holding the purse strings.
What kind of euro-area budget? – bruegel
Discussions about a euro-area budget are
gaining momentum, not least because of the threat to veto any EU budget
increase by David Cameron.
Back to the Brink for the Eurozone? – Project
Syndicate
Inflicting excessive austerity on the southern
European countries while limiting their exports by restricting effective demand
in the north is like administering an overdose to a patient while withholding
oxygen. The political and economic success of southern Europe’s much-needed structural reforms
requires the proper dose and timing of budgetary medicine and buoyant demand in
the north.
ESM: a debt making machine – Frankfurter
Allgemeine Zeitung / presseurop
With the launch of European rescue fund the ESM
on October 9, the EU is betraying its founding fathers and their treaties. That
it will stabilise the monetary union is also in doubt, laments FAZ, which
strongly backs Germany’s policy of stability.
Nordic Update – Marc to Market
The weakness of the Swedish economy
materialized faster than investors and policy makers expected.
SAXO BANK Q4 OUTLOOKS
Groundhog day! Need change mandate with micro
focus – Saxo
Bank
The Groundhog theme for this Q4 Outlook is
shown in how we keep cycling back and forth between denial and protest with a
real mandate for change neither given nor taken. Unfortunately, we remain
trapped until the current macro policies are abandoned.
Equity: Go small cap for large returns – Saxo
Bank
We foresee subdued economic growth going
forward as the financial repression continues and in that environment small
niche companies with comparative advantages will do well compared to larger
companies.
FX: Market nerves will lead to volatility
expansion – Saxo
Bank
As we head into Q4, the global spirit of
central bank interventionism has imposed tremendous losses on the macro “bears”
particularly in the EU’s case, as a EUR bear squeeze ruined the best trend
going in FX in September.
Monetary Policy – Saxo
Bank
The Fed and ECB are pretty much done in terms
of quantitative easing for 2012. It is perhaps another story in Japan where further QE is
perfectly possible before year-end. Likewise in the UK too where up to GBP 50 bn in QE could come in November.
Macro Feature: Japanisation of the global
economy – Saxo
Bank
Despite the lack of results from Japan’s two decades of QE
and Ultra-Easy Keynesian stimulus the Japanese experiment has been a complete
and utter failure and yet, our Western central banks are almost unanimously
leading us down the Japanese path.
The guard change in China will hardly result in
leaders with the courage to re-invent China’s “old” business
model with a shift to domestic consumption, creating a healthcare system,
encouraging competition and deepening financial markets.
Commodity: Weak fundamentals create headwinds – Saxo
Bank
Into the fourth quarter the impact of the
latest round of quantitative easing will fade and the dollar should find some
support which in turn will create some headwinds for the commodity sector as a
whole.
OTHER
Emerging Markets FX Monocle – A bird in hand… – Nordea
(pdf)
Nordea Risk Perception Publication – Nordea
(pdf)
Sideways trading across financial asset classes
as markets continue to acknowledge 1) European politicians becoming more
vigorous and 2) central banks showing their ammo * The tendency with seeping
vols is clearly reflected in Nordea Risk Perception Index * Movements however
still muted and correlations are high between asset classes * Going forward,
vols can easily loose further ground on the back of ECB and continued weak
economic data that keeps markets in tight trading ranges * With only the past
year in mind, risk sentiment can quickly shift and timing may be apt for
entering tail risk hedges at current historic cheap levels
Magnus, on spending our way out of the Mumps – alphaville
/ FT
According to George Magnus of UBS, most of the western world has now been struck by the latter. And — contrary to popular belief — the disease is underpinned not by western profligacy, but possibly the very opposite phenomenon. Too much thrift.
According to George Magnus of UBS, most of the western world has now been struck by the latter. And — contrary to popular belief — the disease is underpinned not by western profligacy, but possibly the very opposite phenomenon. Too much thrift.