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| SPX weekly shows that the countertrend corrections (minibears), especially after well-defined toppish formations, tend to be deeper than what we've seen so far. The market has kept above the 1400 support, but I expect a visit to 1350-level - that would make the correction deep enough to put the markets on better track, while still keeping to the 2010-2012 bullish zig-zagging, and around the 1350-levels markets would start expecting someone (Greenspan?) to show up and promise more QE-madness or something. |
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| My bearish call would be changed if the market decides to take out the 1420-resistance. |
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| EURUSD is still sitting in its daily range pattern - more than the stock market, this pair is mostly determined by the relative printing rate of the two central banks. |
Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Roundups and
Commentary
News – Between
The Hedges
Markets – Between
The Hedges
Recap – Global
Macro Trading
The Closer – alphaville / FT
Roundup – A
View From My Screens
Tomorrow’s Tape: Jobless Claims, Apple Earnings – WSJ
Debt
crisis: live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
Economic
Calendar – Forexpros
EUROPE
Paying back the LTRO early… or not – alphaville
/ FT
Pressure
building on the front-end of Euribor contracts. Short positions might be
stacking up, apparently. Why? It might be because there is speculation flitting
about that European banks will begin to pay back some of their LTRO cash in the
near future. Something not everyone thinks is likely to happen.
As member states have to negotiate both
externally with the EU and internally with their own regions, European
integration is reaching a point of exhaustion – europp
/ LSE
As the
leaders of the major EU member states grope towards a solution to the
eurocrisis Bob Hancké looks at the impact of the rise of challenges posed to
member states’ governments from regions such as Catalonia, Scotland and Flanders. National governments now not only
have to negotiate with the EU and other member states, but their own
increasingly restless regions and populations.
Speech Mario Draghi: Opening statement at
Deutscher Bundestag
– ECB
Hyper Mario Draghi Speaks – ZH
(a good
overview, more in my previous post)
It looks
like Germany has decided that Greece hasn’t given up quite enough of its
sovereignty yet.
UNITED STATES
FOMC
Preview:
Nothing Now, Moar Later – ZH
(discusses the Dec meeting, so worth it)
A complete
non-event – focus now on December meeting – Nordea
A non-event
– Danske
Bank (pdf)
Statement – alphaville
/ FT
OTHER
Dylan Grice: The Bull Case for Safe Havens – The
Big Picture
“Government
securities are the default safe haven in times of heightened risk aversion. But
what happens when Government finances are the cause of the tension? Where are
the safe havens then?”
Rising Volatility, Euro Out of Step – Marc
to Market
We have
highlighted the contradiction between the low implied volatility and the large
number of event risks on the horizon.
The World In Three Charts – ZH
Expectation
indices for China, US and Europe. Good quickie.
Gawd but the currency wars are boring – alphaville
/ FT
Sure we’ve
got plenty of rhetoric, a Swiss franc floor and QE — but FX volatility is
touching recent lows.
IN FINNISH
Euroliittovaltiossa
Suomi maksaisi jopa 8 miljardia vuodessa ja leikkaisi omia menojaan saman
verran – laskelma yleisön pyynnöstä – tyhmyri
IMF tutki: mitä jos
pankit eivät loisikaan enää meidän rahaamme? – Ville
Iivarinen / US Puheenvuoro
Suomen Emu historiaa
eli kuinka meistä tehtiin hulttiopolitiikan maksajia – Heikki
Porkka / US Puheenvuoro