The best
picks from my posts since last Friday
Previously on MoreLiver’s:
EUROPE
Troika Statement on the Sixth
Review Mission to Portugal – IMF
Should the Eurozone’s fiscal
rules be abolished?
– mainly
macro
Eurozone
governments still do not know what to do if a future Greece emerges. How does it differentiate
between a future Greece (where default is required) and a
future Ireland (where it is not)? The answer at the moment
seems to be that the fiscal rules will ensure there will never be another Greece.
Fiscal cliff lessons from the
eurozone crisis – The
A-List / FT
As the
deadline to avert the fiscal cliff gets closer, US policy makers may want to
learn some lessons from the way eurozone authorities managed their crisis.
A year in a life… – alphaville
/ FT
Dear euro,
this has been your 2012 so far. Do try and get through the rest safely:
French downgrade to give way
to Greek debt deal
– MacroScope
/ Reuters
Misconstruing Germany Will Prove to Be Death of the Euro – EconoMonitor
Megan
Greene: If Germany doesn’t change its position, the best we can realistically
hope for is that it will continue to pay lip service to eventually establishing
an effective banking union, and that the European Central Bank will pretend to
believe this fiction in order to continue buying euro-area sovereign bonds.
That could keep the wheels on the euro-area project for some time. But it
cannot solve the crisis.
The Finnish Erosion: Dilemmas of the Last
Triple-A Eurozone Economies – EconoMonitor
During the
past two years, the Eurozone focus has been on the ailing Southern European
economies and their austerity fatigue. In the next two years, it will be on the
last triple-A economies in Northern Europe and their bailout fatigue. One of these is Finland – a legendary Nordic tiger whose
competitiveness is eroding.
GREECE
Is the EZ’s “cunning plan”
for Greece credible? – Kiron
Sarkar / The Big Picture
The meeting
of the EZ finance ministers next Tuesday (20th November) to “settle” on a deal
for Greece is certainly a “must be watched “event. The market consensus
suggests that some kind of deal will be done. Well, that may be the case, but
let me just raise the following.
EU Stumbles on Greek Debt
Reduction After Clash With IMF – BB
Euro zone, IMF fail to strike
Greek debt deal – Reuters
More Jockeying over Greece’s Inevitable Haircut – PIIE
In light of
Greece’s erratic program implementation so far, they
are right to keep its debt on their books until the end of the reform process
in maybe 2015. They reason that it is better to wait before deciding on the
scale of the losses their taxpayers will have to absorb until more information
about Greece’s future is available.
On Greece, Europe should
listen to the IMF – The
A-List / FT
Mohamed El-Erian: The IMF is right. Greece urgently
needs OSI. The longer Europe resists,
the greater the risks to the integrity of Greece and to
the credibility of Eurozone policy responses.
SPAIN
Spain’s’ only three options for recovery – Fabius Maximus
The
Euro-crisis began in March 2010, and yet its causes and basic elements remain
widely misunderstood — including, based on their public statements, by many of Europe’s leaders. Here Prof Pettis gives a clear explanation of
what’s happening, and of Spain’s only three ways out of this
crisis.
El Rosario De La Aurora – A Fistful of
Euros
(on Spain) I could go on and on. I would like
to be optimistic, but five years of watching this train crash in slow motion
have left me with the feeling that this one now has no solution. The country’s
political leaders just aren’t up to the levels of complexity involved
Spanish Bad Loans Hit Fresh
Record High Again –
ZH
UNITED STATES
Expect more from the Fed —
and soon – The
A-list / FT
Mohamed
El-Erian: officials are considering additional measures, and are confused about
what they should do next.
How big will the Fed’s QE3
end up being? – MacroScope
/ Reuters
Minutes
from the Federal Reserve’s October meeting point to solid support within the
central bank for ongoing monetary easing via asset purchases well into 2013.
Economists React: The Fiscal
Cliff ‘Can’t Be Fully Avoided’ – WSJ
Strength in numbers? Pros and cons of Fed
policy thresholds –
MacroScope
/ Reuters
Fed’s Lacker Is Skeptical of More Explicit
Policy Thresholds –
WSJ
More
explicitly stating what would prompt a change in monetary policy could risk a
breakdown in the Fed's inflation fighting credibility, a veteran policy maker
said Tuesday.
ASIA
Research Japan: Bank of Japan is turning into a dove – Danske Bank (pdf)
Research Japan: Bank of Japan is turning into a dove – Danske Bank (pdf)
Election
will increase pressure on BoJ for more easing * BoJ has already stepped up
easing substantially * Reshuffle of BoJ board gives ample room to influence
next year *
Bank of Japan preview – Danske
Bank (pdf)
BoJ takes a
breather but is poised to ease further
Monetary policy in Japan: Battle of the BOJ – Free
exchange / The Economist
Stockmarket
analysts have generally welcomed Mr Abe’s pledge to inflate the economy with
aggressive pump-priming measures, saying it has already cheapened the yen and
boosted share prices. They hope he will do more to stir business activity if
his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) wins the December 16th election. But they
should consider carefully what they wish for.
The Shirakawa redemption – Free
exchange / The Economist
There is a
lesson in the story for politicians elsewhere. Some may read the Japanese
experience as suggesting that insufficiently expansionary monetary policy is no
excuse not to pursue fiscal consolidation. A better lesson, however, might be
that central bankers worried about long-run fiscal conditions would be wise to
push their economies back to potential as quickly as possible.
W(h)ither China? "The End Of Extrapolation" – ZH
UBS’s full note!
ECONOMICS
Current Thinking on the
Financial Crisis and the Way Forward – CFA
Institute
Cato Institute 30th Annual
Monetary Conference
– The Aleph Blog
Quick
summaries – five minutes to read them all:
(audio) How the
clash between John Maynard Keynes and Friedrich Hayek continues to define the
difference between left and right today – LSE
Eighty
years ago at the LSE, Friedrich Hayek launched an assault upon the new economic
thinking of John Maynard Keynes. The clash was so bitter and vituperative that
it scandalized the cloistered world of academia. Eighty years on, the
differences between the two men have still not been finally resolved and their
conflicting approaches to the economy continue to define the profound chasm
between politicians of left and right. (direct mp3-link)
Solving the too big to fail
problem – BIS (pdf)
International monetary policy
interactions: challenges and prospects – BIS
The monetary policy of the
ECB and its transmission in the euro area – ECB (pdf)
The Lender of Last Resort:
Lessons from the Fed’s First 100 Years – The
Big Picture
OTHER
The good (political) times
are over for risk assets – alphaville
/ FT
Morgan
Stanley cross-asset strategist Gerard Minack has been looking over a long
horizon, and observes that risk assets have had a good run from policymakers
for several decades. But that time is probably over.
IN FINNISH
Suomi yhtä lähellä ydintä kuin Bulgaria ja Romania
– Jan
Hurri / TalSa
EU:n talouspolitiikan "kova ydin" on komission
talous- ja raha-asiain pääosasto, jonka ennusteet ovat koko unionin
talousohjauksen perusta. Suomi ei ole tämän ytimen sisäpiirissä vaan niin
kaukana laitamilla kuin mahdollista. Suomea paimentaa sama yksikkö kuin Bulgariaa
ja Romaniaa. Kauniita maita kumpikin, mutta tuskin EU:n kovinta ydintä. Se
siitä henkseleiden paukuttelusta.
Kiistaa, valhetta ja vilppiä – tästä ei Kreikka
selviä – Jan
Hurri / TalSa
Europäättäjät ja IMF ovat yhtä mieltä siitä, että Kreikan
"pelastaminen" ei ole sujunut niin kuin piti. Hoitovirhettä ne eivät
myönnä mutta kinastelevat, pitäisikö Kreikan väärää lääkehoitoa seuraavaksi pitkittää
vai vahvistaa. Kumpikaan tuskin pelastaa potilasta – jolle käy tätä menoa
lopulta joka tapauksessa kalpaten.
Suomen
pelastusohjelma ja todellisuuden kieltäminen – Helsingin Sanomat ei vieläkään
kirjoita asioista niiden oikeilla nimillä – tyhmyri
Raimo Sailas ja Osmo Soininvaara peräänkuuluttavat
säästöjä ja sisäistä devalvaatiota – tyhmyri
Ilmeisesti itseaiheutettu katastrofi on mieluisampi
vaihtoehto kuin typerien päätösten peruminen
Lontoon terveisiä – Timo Soini
”Jykä” ”Meidän on hoidettava Eurokriisi ensin”
– Vähemmän
on Enemmän
Työttömyyden lasku tilastoharhaa – Nordea
(pdf)
Tilastokeskuksen tänään julkaisemat lokakuun
työvoimatutkimuksen tulokset antavat liian hyvän kuvan Suomen työmarkkinoista.
Vastaavasti elokuun ja syyskuun osalta kuva työmarkkinoista oli tähän päivään
saakka liian synkkä. Tämä käy ilmi siitä, että Tilastokeskus on madaltanut
arviotaan työttömyysasteen trendistä näiden kahden kuukauden osalta.
Sanna Ukkola: Yksinäinen Jyrki Boy – YLE
Zen Cafén biisiä vapaasti tapaillen: Jyrki Kataisesta on
tullut mies, jonka ympäriltä avustajat viedään.
Kolme reittiä ulos kriisistä – kaikki
"mahdottomia" – Jan
Hurri / TalSa
Europäättäjillä on kolme edes teoriassa mahdollista keinoa
ratkaista kriisi. Kaksi niistä on äärimmäisen epätodennäköisiä tai käytännössä
mahdottomia. Kolmaskin on erittäin vaikea – ja lisäksi tyystin sopimaton
kriisikokousten esityslistoille. Tiistain Kreikka-kokous ei käsitellyt
ainuttakaan näistä keinoista.
Kortit pöytään
liittovaltiobluffissa! – Sampo Terho
Suomen, Ruotsin ja Saksan kilpailukykyvertailu
kolmella kuvalla – tyhmyri