The commentators seem to be saying that the stock market correction is not yet over - while the elections and possible risk-positive news could cause short-term spasms of optimism, the earnings, fiscal cliff and Europe loom large.
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| Source: Thomson Reuters |
Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Roundups and
Commentary
News – Between The Hedges
Markets – Between The Hedges
Recap – Global Macro Trading
The Closer – alphaville / FT
Roundup – A
View From My Screens
Roundup – Kiron
Sarkar / The Big Picture
Tomorrow’s Tape: Election Day, and Night – WSJ
Europe: Peripherals Plunge As Swiss/German Safety Sought Once Again – ZH
Europe: Peripherals Plunge As Swiss/German Safety Sought Once Again – ZH
US: Stocks And Bond Yields Play Catch Down To Gold's
Friday Weakness – ZH
Reference
Debt crisis:
live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
Economic
Calendar – Forexpros
EUROPE
Perhaps Rajoy
attempting to put a Spanish candidate to ECB
Is the ECB sticking
to its collateral rules? – alphaville
/ FT
The ECB may have granted loans to the Spanish bank
sector on too low an interest rate given the quality of the collateral posted
How Canada Became Spain's Best Friend; Or Why The ECB Does Not Need To
Haircut Toxic Spanish Bonds – ZH
Should DBRS ever change its mind (wink wink), then the
margin call will spring.
Meet The French Major
Whose Spanish "A" Rating Keeps The ECB €17 Billion Margin Call Away – ZH
Daniel Gros: In both the US subprime
crisis and Europe's sovereign-debt
crisis, assets previously regarded as risk-free proved to be anything but safe.
Recovery for Europe, however, is likely
to be much slower than it has been for the US, owing to
the absence of debt mutualization and continued uncertainty about default risk.
UNITED STATES
New Atlantic column: Who will be better for the
economy, Obama or Romney? – Noahpinion
Citi: The Election's Implications For FX
Markets – ZH
If Obama
wins, the initial reaction might still be some modest buying of fixed income,
on the view that the Fed will be encouraged to proceed on its QE path and there
will be more continuity at the end of Bernanke’s term…After the initial
Obama-win rally, the fiscal cliff comes into focus
Richard Koo in the FT – PragCap
Koo: The US economy is already losing forward
momentum as the 2009 fiscal stimulus is allowed to expire. There is no time to
waste: the government must take up the private sector’s unborrowed savings, to
keep the economy from imploding and to provide income for businesses and
households so they can repair their balance sheets
Going Over the Fiscal Cliff – EconoMonitor
James
Hamilton: The most likely eventual outcome seems to me to be much more modest
tax increases and spending cuts than implied by the full “fiscal cliff”
scenario. A key question is then whether political brinksmanship, particularly
the strategy of first going off the cliff before trying to find a way back up,
could in and of itself exert significant costs.
From "Buy The
Presidential Election" To "Sell The Tax Hike" – ZH
GS: Capital gains and dividend taxes have garnered
less attention than other parts of the Fiscal Cliff. However, with those taxes
scheduled to rise at year-end based on current law, our conversations with
clients show a renewed sense of urgency as the deadline approaches.
Earnings Season Ugly All Around – MarketBeat
/ WSJ
Morgan Stanley strategist Adam Parker says don’t let the earnings expectations game fool you. As the chart shows, one-day pops for stock prices haven’t been sustainable throughout this particular earnings season.
Morgan Stanley strategist Adam Parker says don’t let the earnings expectations game fool you. As the chart shows, one-day pops for stock prices haven’t been sustainable throughout this particular earnings season.
Sign Of
Capitulation: Are We There Yet? – The
Short Side of The Long
Long and tasty look at the stock market. Correction
has more room to go is the conclusion.
ISM Service / October
Decreases in October – Calculated
Risk
Below Forecasts – Bespoke
First Miss And Decline In 3 Months, Employment Index
At Highest Since March – ZH
Points To Continued Growth – The
Capital Spectator
Growth Slows – dshort
ISM
Composite, Employment & Black Helicopters – dshort
OTHER
AAAs, alternative universes, and hindsight – alphaville
/ FT
Australia’s federal court found that the
ratings agency had misled local councils through assigning AAA credit ratings
to CPDOs which it had failed to check properly…this could well be a landmark
case for credit ratings as causes of financial harm…