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Wednesday, November 7

7th Nov - US Close: Support in Short Supply


Very risk-off day today, both stocks and euro sold off heavily. Basically, bad European numbers coupled with Draghi's warning that Germany is starting to get its share of the crisis were the main drivers. So why was this so bad? Perhaps because Merkel and other key decision makers are still pulling their feet. By being forced to state that aloud, I interpret that behind the curtains there is no solid plan and commitment to it. Draghi tried to put pressure on Merkel. This means that polite private explanation of the issues did not work. And now, as everyone is getting publically smeared by everyone else, chances of finding a politically acceptable mutual solution are growing thin.


  
Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups and Commentary
Markets – Between The Hedges
The Closer – alphaville / FT

The T Report: Risk-Off – TF Market Advisors               
Afternoon T Report: A Lot to Catch Up On – TF Market Advisors
Tomorrow’s Tape: Jobless Claims, Disney, Groupon Earnings – WSJ
US: Obama's Re-Election Party Cut Short By Biggest Market Plunge In 1 Year – ZH

Reference
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
Economic Calendar – Forexpros

EUROPE
Dreadful Economic Data in Germany, Italy, Spain FranceMish’s
Eurozone core economies under pressureSober Look
Markit’s European indices bad, while Draghi warns that the crisis is spreading to Germany

Do not forget all the progress madeNordea
A lot of progress has been seen already, which should not be forgotten. That said, plenty of work remains, and as long as weak economic performance continues, confidence is unlikely to return for good. Many painful years are still in store.

EU to be federalised in the long run, Merkel says euobserver
"Of course the European Commission will one day become a government, the EU council a second chamber and the European Parliament will have more powers. But for now, we have to focus on the euro and give people a little bit of time to come along," she said.

The convergence between the core and the periphery economies in the EurozoneSober Look
In effect the painful periphery adjustments are forcing the core to adjust as well, contributing to the convergence.

Finnish economy - headwinds increasingDanske Bank (pdf)
The government has based its budget on an assumption of 1% GDP growth in both 2012 and 2013, which could turn out to be too optimistic. There is no immediate pressure to alter the budget but households are likely to be under pressure in 2013, when VAT and a few other taxes are raised at the same time as unemployment is rising.

UNITED STATES
Previewing Four More Years Of The Divided States Of AmericaZH
JPMorgan: Close to 100% of US tax revenues are already eaten up by mandatory spending on entitlements and other programs, and interest. However, electoral results suggest the country is in no mood to address entitlement issues right now, will defer them to another day, and continue to shift towards a high-Federal debt economic model that bears some resemblance to Europe and Japan. (full post-election thoughts-piece pdf)

The US election and the fiscal cliffCredit Writedowns
Of all the proposed Fiscal cliff changes, ending the payroll tax cut and starting a series of healthcare tax increases are done deals in my view. This will result in a Fiscal Clifflet at a minimum. Moreover, the Republicans have to know that reducing spending also weakens economic growth, something for which President Obama could be blamed.

Bungee cord at the ready, will US politicians jump?alphaville / FT
Democrats have a track record of getting fiscal legislation through a Republican-led House by cutting deals. Will they be able to pull off the same trick when it comes to averting a slew of budget cuts and tax increases that will otherwise kick in at the end of the year?

Economists Worry About Fiscal Cliff ResolutionWSJ
Forecasters are worried that since the levers of government are in essentially the same hands as before the election, lawmakers may be hardening themselves against any form of compromise to deal with a threat many economist say could bring a new recession.

Policy Uncertainty FallsMacro Man
Team Macro Man believe that the path to falling policy uncertainty began this week and the fiscal cliff may have to be downgraded to "road hump".

FIRE IN THE DISCO!The Reformed Broker
First, let us discuss the Cliff that no one else seems to want to acknowledge - The Earnings Cliff! This is a very real phenomenon that is very dangerous for both stocks and the economy as a whole - corporations facing a deceleration in earnings growth or an outright drop in year-over-year profits DO NOT INCREASE SPENDING AND HIRING.

OTHER
The Four Regimes (And 40 Years) Of Equity Valuation ZH
UBS: Stocks tend to experience very long periods (5-20 years) of either anemic or exceptional returns… Investment Regimes are defined by secular multiple expansion or contraction… Over the past two years, the key metric for valuing stocks has shifted from investment grade to non-investment grade yields. Given the fiscal situation in both the U.S. and Europe, we believe that this regime will likely persist until structural imbalances are meaningfully addressed by policymakers.

Economic and Market OutlookNordea (pdf)
If markets go more into risk-off heading into the winter, long-term investors should be looking to switch more into risk-on trades.

The impact of commodity index rebalancingSober Look
The overall impact will be a net inflow into energy commodities, and a net outflow from agricultural commodities and from base metals.

IN FINNISH
Eduskunta II – Satiiri veljeskunnistaOlli Pusa / US Puheenvuoro
 
Olli Pusa: Renkien kaappauspusa.fi (pdf)
Suomalaisista työeläkejärjestelmää mainostetaan maailman parhaaksi. Sitä on jopa ehdotettu suomalaiseksi vientituotteeksi EU:ssa. Olen 30 vuoden aikana erilaisissa tehtävissä läheltäkin seurannut työeläkejärjestelmän tapahtumia ja epäilys näiden mainospuheiden paikkansapitävyydestä on suuri. Työeläkejärjestelmä onkin monella tapaa epäonnistunut, ajastaan jälkeen jäänyt rakennelma. Sen ongelmia ei vain uskalleta sanoa ääneen. 

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