15th Jan - US Open

Germany’s recession confirmed, Ireland would like to have OMT support, Britain’s PM moves his speech earlier to next Friday. EURUSD broke below its narrow trading range, signaling furher weakness. USDJPY correction also still underway. As I've said for the past couple of weeks, the silence in Europe was a bit premature.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:     

15-Jan EU Open

14-Jan Warren's F U (SPX View)

14-Jan US Close

14-Jan US Open: Paused markets (Antti, haista ...

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Roundups & Commentary

Frontrunning – ZH

Overnight: First Leg Of German Recession Now Official, As Yen Collapse Ends – ZH

The Lunch Wrap – alphaville / FT

Emerging N.Y. headlines – beyondbrics / FT

Today’s front pages – presseurop

Daily press summary – Open Europe

Morning MarketBeat: Fed Won’t Pull Back on Stimulus Any Time Soon – WSJ

Broker Note Briefing – WSJ

Yen Bounce Featured in Consolidative Session – Marc to Market

Roundup – Kiron Sarkar / The Big Picture

EUROPE

In Ireland, to OMT or not to OMT? – Brussels blog / FT

The Irish website TheStory.ie got its hands on the new European Commission report on the Irish bailout, which makes clear on page 44 that Dublin is in discussions with the troika about whether the ECB’s bond-buying programme – known as Outright Monetary Transactions – can be accessed

You cannot define business opinion on Europe in terms of ‘Eurosceptics’ vs ‘Europhiles’ – The Telegraph

Speech: The global financial crisis – 5 years on – ECB

Constâncio, Vice-President of the ECB, China-Europe Economists Symposium, Beijing, 12 January 2013

  UK

British PM Cameron to give Europe speech on January18 – Reuters

UK's Cameron faces tightrope EU speech, shuns exit vote – Reuters

Cameron Chooses Netherlands to Set Out EU Referendum Plans – BB

Cameron EU speech brought forward to avoid diplomatic row – euobserver

When it comes to Europe, David Cameron represents the silent majority – The Telegraph

Cameron's EU speech: The only way is up? – Open Europe

Analysis: What if Britain left Europe? – The Independent

A "Brexit" is considered a real possibility for the first time in four decades. But just how economically damaging would UK withdrawal be, asks Ben Chu

UK Research: Moderate recovery driven by easing headwinds – Danske Bank (pdf)

  GERMANY

German economy contracts – Nordea

German economy contracted 0.5 percent in fourth quarter – Reuters

German Growth Slowed as Debt Crisis Dampened Investment – BB

  NORDIC

S&P affirms Finland’s AAA, outlook to stable – Nordea

Sweden: Monthly production data point to a marked GDP contraction – Nordea

  PIIGS

Italian elections may yet shake euro zone – MacroScope / Reuters

Berlusconi Gains in Polls as Italians Swayed by Media Blitz – BB

Draghi’s Bond Rally Masks Debt Doom Loop Trapping Spain – BB

UNITED STATES

The mixed outlook for US consumer spending – alphaville / FT

The US retail sales figures for December will be out later on Tuesday and we’ll use the occasion as an excuse to take a look at the wider picture for the American consumer this year.

OTHER

Morning Briefing (EU/US): What we have here is failure to communicate – BNY Mellon

The market appears unmoved by South Korea’s growing concerns about the KRW. This may have to change

Macro Strategy – Watch CPI in EU & US and production data from the US – Nordea

We enter these data points recommending being long risk. The industrial data from the US will reignite the cyclical hopes, together with CPI there could be grounds for the USD to strengthen (we are strategically neural the USD for the time being).

Commodity volatility, where art thou? – alphaville / FT

Goldman Sachs put out a research note this week clocking that things have got awfully quiet of late. Almost strangely so.

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