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Tuesday, January 29

29th Jan - US Close



 Quote of the Day: Speden puoluetoimisto tiedottaa:

Spede-puolue on kokoomuksen johdolla juuri saanut sovituksi uudesta verosta, joka on lasten viikkorahavero. Kyseinen vero koskee kaikkia lapsia pilteistä teineihin. Viikkorahavero on luonnollisesti progressiivinen, jotta ökyrikkaat yrittäjäkapitalistisiat osallistuisivat oikeudenmukaisemmin yhteiskunnan välttämättömien ulkomaisten tulonsiirtojen rahoittamiseen. Koska veroprosenteillahan me elämme, emme euroilla.

Veron kiertämisen estämiseksi on myös perustettu uusi Waltion Wirasto, jonka ainoana tehtävänä on kalkyleerata laskennallisia lasten viikkorahaveroprosentteja veronkiertotapauksia silmällä pitäen. Virastoon on alustavasti palkattu 154 henkilöä, joista puolet ovat naisia ja puolet naisista ja miehistä on maahanmuuttajia. Näin edistämme naisten ja miesten ja maahanmuuttajien tasa-arvoa.

Öhym.

Viikkorahaverosta ovat positiivisen segregaation nimissä vapautettuja tietyt erityisryhmät: kuten maahanmuuttajat ja RKP:läiset. Tämä on perusteltua, jotta yhteiskunnan hegemonia ja arvojärjestys säilyisivät eikä kukkoileville alkuperäisasukkaille vain tulisi tunnetta, että he olisivat jotain Euroopan omistajia. Verotuksen arvioitu tuotto tulee olemaan n. 100 miljoonaa euroa ja veron arvioidaan valtionvarainministeriön huippusalatun laskelman mukaan olevan täysin kulutuskysyntäneutraali. – Anonyymi




Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups & Commentary
Markets – Between The Hedges
The Closer – alphaville / FT

Tomorrow’s Tape: GDP, FOMC, and Dow 14000? – WSJ
Morning Briefing (Asia): – BNY Mellon
US: Another Day, Another 5 Year High (Except For Trannies) – ZH


EUROPE
Chronic EuropeProject Syndicate
Europe’s great success in 2012 was to avoid becoming another of history's failed monetary unions. But, having escaped the markets' wrath, have Europe's political leaders again chosen to muddle through, rather than meld a resilient strategy?

Euro Area Spreads Near 52-Week Lows Bespoke

UNITED STATES
  FED
FOMC meeting a non-eventNordea
Only seven weeks after the FOMC in December decided to replace its Operation Twist with more QE, the Fed’s policy and forward guidance will most likely remain unchanged tomorrow after the first FOMC meeting in 2013.

FOMC previewalphaville / FT
Nobody is expecting any major policy changes or innovations in the FOMC statement that will be released Wednesday. (There’s no presser until the March meeting.) But in addition to any changes in the economic outlook, a couple of items will be worth watching.

Fed watchers will be looking for new communication tidbits this time around, however, related to the asset-purchase programme. Minutes from the last Fed meeting revealed an internal debate over just how long the Fed should keep buying, with some FOMC members in favour of maintaining purchases for all of 2013 and others supporting an end mid-year. The feeling now seems to be that the FOMC may move toward a new set of thresholds specific to QE purchases.

  STOCK MARKET
US share buy-backs and dividends increases in two chartsMacronomics

S&P 500 Index Reaches 1,500 Again: A Multi-Decade Triple TopThe Peridot Capitalist

Visualizing The Market's Parabolic RiseZH

What's wrong with this picture?Sober Look
The divergence between consumer sentiment and the stock market has become quite pronounced and is unlikely to be sustainable over the longer term. Ultimately, weak sentiment will result in lower sales.

  MACRO NUMBERS
Macro Strategy – Watch US GDP GrowthNordea (pdf)
For over a month we have been looking for upside surprises in macro data, not only for the US but also for EU and China. Tomorrow’s release of US GDP growth data is no exception. (summary)

Case-Shiller: Home Prices Rose November 2012 – The Big Picture
Case-Shiller Home Price Index Posts Second Consecutive Monthly Decline, Average Home Prices Back To Fall 2003 Levels – ZH

Consumer Confidence Crashes To 2011 Levels After Biggest Plunge Since August 2011 Debt Ceiling Debacle – ZH

ASIA
China’s Last Soft Landing?Project Syndicate
On the surface, the Chinese economy's resilience has been impressive – the first to recover, as Chinese leaders always want to remind the rest of the world. But, beneath the surface, the economy risks losing its capacity for resilience unless the authorities accelerate the transition to a more consumer-led economy.

OTHER
The point of low return, part twoButtonwood / The Economist
Further to the last post on the expected returns from a 60/40 equity bond US portfolio, Chris Brightman of Research Affiliates has produced this interesting table on the past returns

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