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Thursday, February 28

28th Feb - US Close: Sequester's here

Estimated -0.5% effect on GDP. At current growth levels, not nice.

28th Feb - US Open: Boring EOM

 Dull, quiet day: last day of the month, no ECB/FED-stuff flying around, sequester coming up on Friday. Today's inflation numbers from Europe suggest that the ECB has room to ease - if it wants to.


Kokeneena asiantuntijana oletan ymmärrettävän, että erityisosaamisen arvostaminen puoltaa ajatusmallia kokonaan uudelleenarvioida menetettyä työpanosta. Koska talouskasvun merkitys on relatiivinen suhteessa perustarpeiden tyydyttämiseen, informaatioyhteiskunnan verkottuminen antaa oikeuden jokaiselle prosessiin osallistuneelle kommentoida nykyisten asiakkaidemme taloudellisia ja hallinnollisia mahdollisuuksia. Liiketoimintamallien keskittyminen vaikuttaa myös meihin, sillä kohtuuttomat odotukset hintatason alenemiseen osoittavat tehtyjen päätöksen vaikuttaneen elvyttävästi potentiaaliin arvostaa organisaatiomme iskukykyä. Euroopan yhdentymiskehitys ja lisääntyvä kilpailu aiheuttavat sen, että radikaalit yhteiskuntasopimukset liittyvät läheisesti suunnitelmiimme uudistaa kommunikointiperiaatteistoamme.

Generoitu Matti Grönroosin palvelulla

28th Feb - EU Open

Tuesday, February 26

26th Feb - Guest: Miksi Saksa ei anna

A guest post in Finnish from "Tyhmyri". 

Aina vika on jossain muissa: valehtelevissa kreikkalaisissa, laiskoissa espanjalaissia, ranskalaisissa juustoa syövissä antautuja-apinoissa. Koskaan – siis koskaan – vika ei ole Saksan kristillisdemokraateissa tai Bundesbankissa (mielestäni Euroopan 90-luvun alun katastrofi oli Bonnin ja BuBa:n yhteinen kämmi). Vika ei aivan erityisesti, missään nimessä, ole Deutsche Bankin tai Commerzbankin lainaosastoilla, tai heitä valvoneissa viranomaisissa, tai pankit omistaneessa Saksan omistajaohjausyksikössä. Saksa on Euroopan iso Kreikka. Vale on isompi, mutta moraali on yhtä huono. - MoreLiver

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter or Facebook

26th Feb - US Close: Finally Calm, For Now

All article links relating to the Italian elections are in my just updated Special

Joke of the Day: Italian elections: who cares when the nominees are Donald, McScrooge and Gladstone - Anonymous

26th Feb - US Open

Notice that all links related to the Italian election are in the Special. Bernanke's testimony at 15:00 GMT the next event.

Joke of the Day: Berlusconi's attempt to leave his young girlfriend in the background backfired, as markets began to wonder if the old playboy had lost his touch and libido. The voters were scared that if they would have voted for Berlusconi, the previous scandalous headlines could have ended soon. Thus it was better to vote a ragtag group of ex-communists and Brussels-introduced technocrats to form a government together. This was the best way to guarantee headlines for the future, commentators said.

26th Feb - EU Open

Boy, it will be a busy week. My gut feeling is that this week will be remembered as the straw that did the camel in. The camel has no double hump, it is a double-w, and the end of popular support for the euro is has landed. Noticeable, very 1998-like reaction in JPY and especially in EURJPY.

Monday, February 25

25th Feb - US Close: Italian Job

Note that all coverage of the Italian elections is in the Special post. What a day: JPY move astounding, EURUSD within normal bearish daily range (the move only looks huge if you include the intra-day rally ahead of the first election results), stock markets sold off. So, EURUSD is down a lot, and dropped below key support areas. Technically difficult environment: the longer-term bull trend looks like it has ended, but are we in a bear trend now, or just range-trading for a while? I'm looking forward to Bernanke's talk tomorrow at 15:00 GMT and on Wednesday as well - he has even more reason now to sound a bit dovish. But... if they start to grill him on the effectiveness of the QE programs, and his answers seem weak, the fears that the QE is about to end might flame up again. I'll be watching the charts..

25th Feb - US Open: First Italian numbers soon

Expect first exit polls after the voting is concluded at 14:00 GMT. See my Special for coverage. I'm skeptical: The Bersani-Monti coalition probably wins, but will they be able to govern the country and push through reforms and austerity with GDP seen dropping again in 2013? I think the government will stand for six months or so. EURUSD long bias for now, sell later when people again get very happy.

25th Feb - Credit Guest: Winner-take-all

This week's highly anticipated, long overdue and terrific credit guest post from Macronomics - your man in the land of strange acronyms like DV01, CDS and PMI. Enjoy and prosper!

25th Feb - EU Open: Waiting for Italy's vote

I'll be updating the Italian election-special today. The world seems normal otherwise: JPY and GBP are weak, Europe muddles through, China's PMI reverted to mean after couple of very good months.

Sunday, February 24

24th Feb - Special: Italian Elections

Here are some article links from my past posts. I will add new content to this before, during and after the elections. From oldest to latest. Latest update 27-Feb 20:30 GMT

Saturday, February 23

23rd Feb - Weekender: Off-Topic

 Last weekend's Off-Topic post here.

23rd Feb - Weekender: Weekly Support

The last week reviewed – and the next previewed! Previous Weekly Support here.

What a week: Fed minutes reveal end to QE is perhaps closer than we were led to believe. European Commission presented its terrible macroeconomic forecasts. UK gets downgraded and markets seem nervous. Next stop will be the Italian election. 

23rd Feb - Weekender: Economics & Markets

23rd Feb - Weekender: The World

Friday, February 22

22nd Feb - Weekender: Best of the Week

Picks from my posts since the previous 'Best of'.

22nd Feb - US Open: All events surprise

Today's German IFO sentiment index surprised to the upside, though I see the numbers to be of mediocre quality after digging deeper behind the headline numbers. The repayments of LTRO2 were significantly less than expected (so the implicit monetary tightening by removing liquidity did not happen, and EURUSD sold off). The European Commission released its updated economic forecasts, and the numbers are grim. The 2013 will be spent in recession, just like 2012. And now all eyes on the Italian elections. Bunga bunga!

I'll try to post a "Best of the Week" and a Special on the Italian elections later today. Come back during the weekend for my usual posts.

22nd Feb - EU Open

Thursday, February 21

21st Feb - US Close

21st Feb - US Open: 1500! Europe's recession to continue!

Again bad PMI-numbers from Europe. Seems the recession is set to continue in the first quarter as well. EURUSD sold off heavily, but now at medium-term target levels.

This is my 1500th blog post. Hope you have liked it so far!

21st Feb - EU Open: EURUSD hit by Fed

Tuesday, February 19

19th Feb - US Close

”Haaparanta on idiootti, joka ei tajua yhtään mistään asiasta kerta kaikkiaan yhtään mitään. Haaparanta uskoo keynesiläisiin paskateorioihin, joihin kukaan muu ei ole uskonut 40 vuoteen.” 

– Nimetön itävaltalaista tunnustava naamakirjassa. Ilmeisesti häntä harmitti, että Haaparanta moitti ja suorastaan vinoili komissaari Rehnin pyrkimyksille vaientaa säästötoimiin kohdistunutta kritiikkiä.

19th Feb - US Open

Recession and threat of deflation. Let’s just repeat the past and demand the impossible (WWI-war reparations then vs. untenable sovereign and private debt now), keep the exchange rate fixed (gold then vs. euro now), let’s not believe what economists are saying (Keynes then vs. everybody, including the IMF now), let’s not admit any mistakes and just observe while attitudes and values change to the extreme.

Then we can collectively wonder how it happened again and why we didn’t learn our lessons from the previous episodes. The only thing that I am not sure about is will the next guy have moustache, beard or be clean-shaven, and will he land in Brussels or in some of the nation states.

This is too easy to interpret. Just like the ending of the ‘Matrix’, you don’t even have to look – you know where the kicks and punches will be coming from.

Jesus, John Lennon, Stephen Hawking and Chuck Norris working together  would not be able to keep the European monetary union flying. The European Union and especially the euro are from the point of game theory assured failures.

19th Feb - EU Open

Drivers ahead: February Markit PMI's on Thursday, German IFO on Friday. Then it will be the elections in Cyprus (no market surprises) and Italy (surprises possible).

Sunday, February 17

17th Feb - Weekender: Finnish articles

17th Feb - Credit Guest:Bold Banking

Macronomics has a good post warning about the risks that rising interest rates and possible revaluation of balance sheets poses to current high asset prices. When expectations are high, disappointment often follows?

17th Feb - Weekender: Off-Topic

17th Feb - Weekender: Economics & Markets

Economists are still debating the central banks’ role in the world: what to target and how? After the previous inflation- and unemployment goals and the latest NGDP-targeting, now directly targeting asset prices is the hot topic. Minimum wage is another topic after US shows signs of raising it (would help to raise the inflation as well). But the most important issue will be the global currency wars. Fiscal and monetary policies have met limits, and I believe 2013 will be remembered as the year when the wars started.

In markets, stock market valuations are debated and the old hand Mr. Soros has enriched himself by a cool 1bn shorting the yen.

Previous "Economics & Markets" here.

17th Feb - Weekender: The World

A busy week – markets were dull, but we had a near-miss comet, an asteroid hitting Russia, North Korea’s nuclear test, pope resigning… by virtue of mean reversion, one should now expect a highly volatile market week while newsflow is zero? Next week will be about the Italian elections (no polls allowed anymore) and Cyprus (first their election, followed by the bailout-talks).

Saturday, February 16

16th Feb - Weekender: Weekly Support

The last week reviewed – and the next previewed! Previous Weekly Support here.

16th Feb - Weekender: Best of the Week

Picks from my posts since the previous 'Best of'.

Tuesday, February 12

12th Sep - US Close: FX War Horns

Nykyisen EU-kehityksen jatko on kiinni siitä, mitä Saksa päättää, eikä ne uskalla toimia ilman muiden maiden tukea - jos Saksa fantsuttelisi yksinään, niin se olisi niille poliittisesti liian raskasta. Sen takia tarvitaan satellitteja kuten Suomi, joiden avulla voidaan selittää sakupankkien tappioiden häivyttämiset "Euroopan pelastamiseksi" sekä jakaa kustannuksia. Saksalla ei ole paljon fantsuttelukavereita. Suomen linjan muuttuminen joku kaunis päivä on EU:lle isompi rätti kuin Iso-Britannian sooloilu. – MoreLiver 12-Feb-2013

12th Feb - US Open: G7 'statement'

Mitä tulee valtiovarainministeriöön, sen puheet ovat olleet ihan karmeaa soopaa tähän asti ja varmasti myös jatkossa. Valitettavasti laitos on vahvasti hallituksen ohjauksessa ja tämä näkyy kyllä kannanotoissa. Mitenkäs se meni - Suomen saatavat Kreikasta eri kanavien kautta 5000 miljoonaa ja VM kovasti vakuutti puolisen vuotta sitten, että max tappio on n. 400 miljoonaa (samaan aikaan mm. Benkku puhui jo yli miljardin kuramahdollisuudesta). Ilmeisesti Hetemäki haluaa oikein kovasti tulla Sailakseksi Sailaksen paikalle, ja SDP:n mielistely sotkee tämän takia hänen virantoimitustaan. – Juhani Huopainen 18.12.2012

12th Feb - EURUSD Views

Some thoughts on EURUSD. Me short from around current levels - a short-term position. Haven't figured out yet which of the two scenarios to believe in.

12th Feb - EU Open

Monday, February 11

11th Feb - Credit Guest: Promissory Hope

Another piece of greatness from Macronomics.

11th Feb - US Close

“Kun hallituksen ministereitä kuuntelee olemme rikas maa, jonka tulisi ylpenä maksaa nettomaksunsa eu:iin. paitsi sitten kun puhutaan palkkaratkaisusta, mummojen hoidosta tai hallituksen investointeja tukevasta politiikasta olemmekin yhtäkkiä karmeassa taloudellisessa kriisissä, jota ei hallitusneuvotteluiden aikaan voinut kuvitellakaan. elämmekö kahdessa rinnakkaistodellisuudessa?” – Anonyymi

11th Feb - US Open

11th Feb - EU Open


Sunday, February 10

10th Feb - Weekender: Off-Topic & Finnish

10th Feb - Weekender: Economics & Markets

10th Feb - Weekender: The World

Päivän mietelause:

"Sijoita vain bisneksiin joita pystyy johtamaan kinkkuvoileipä, koska ennemmin tai myöhemmin sellainen on johtajana." Sopii hyvin myös politiikkaan.

Saturday, February 9

9th Feb - Weekender: Weekly Support

The last week reviewed – and the next previewed! Previous Weekly Support here.

Friday, February 8

8th Feb - US Open

8th Feb - Weekender: Best of the Week

Picks from my posts since the previous 'Best of'.

8th Feb - EU Open

Click to enlarge

 Most excellent chart from Reuters. For ECB commentary, see last night's very long post. 

Thursday, February 7

7th Feb - US Close: ECB Post-Mortem

ECB meeting burned the EURUSD. Friday’s close will set the tone for the next week, so it will be an interesting end to the week – even though calendar looks empty for now. Federal Reserve's Evans gave an interview and I believe his statement on the possibility of ending QE already when unemployment is above 7% was overinterpreted - or it was just an excuse to continue selling the EURUSD. I would not be surprised if we would see a bounce on Friday. Next market-moving event will be the clarification of the Fed's QE-policy.

7th Feb - US Open: ECB press conf. ahead, rates unch.

All my ECB previews are in today’s EU Open-post.

7th Feb - EU Open: ECB Ahead

Wednesday, February 6

6th Feb - US Close

Päivän sitaatti Hollanden euron valuuttakurssin sääntelyhaaveista:
Siis vittu ihan oikeasti mitä ääliöitä eurolaivan komentosillalla seisoo...kirjoita ihmeessä tosta johonkin plokiisi. Itse yritän kuitenkin pitää kohtuumaltillista profiilia, mutta kyllä asiakkaani tietävät eurovastaisuuteni, esitän sen "fiksusti" ja maltillisesti - ei ole ainakaan vielä asiakkaat karanneet... – Anonyymi

6th Feb - US Open

6th Feb - EU Open

Tuesday, February 5

5th Feb - US Close

5th Feb - US Open

5th Feb - EURUSD update

Earlier here. Just went short from current levels.

5th Feb - EU Open

5th Feb - Extra: European comment & EURUSD

It's political, stupid!
I posted my 'view' on Sunday, this is an update to that.First, some talk. Europe is not going to hell because Rajoy might have taken some 30,000 euros annually, or Draghi spent his time at the Bank of Italy fiddling his thumbs instead of supervising the banks. Europe is in trouble because of the elections. The pro-European parties are beginning to lose in the polls because the popular opinion is moving against foreign bastards - not only in Spain, but more so in Brussels, Berlin and Paris. In Germany, Merkel is already having hard enough time explaining to the Bundestag why they should give more and more, and why austerity is not working. In Spain, Rajoy's government is going to find it very hard to push additional reforms and find political friends, and the economy might be hit by protest strikes and demonstrations soon. While Spain was promised more time to meet the budget deficit ceilings, it is obvious that austerity is not working in the PIIGS, and we will not see any more austerity in either Italy or Spain for the moment.

It was just a question of time when the bond markets realized this. I think markets have known this for a long time, but have trusted the ECB's promise to do 'whatever it takes'. Markets simply forgot that the OMT program is conditional (must apply for Troika program, country must be accepted into the program by other countries and then the applicant must fulfill Troika's demands, or the OMT will close. I believe markets are calling this 'greatest bluff in history' right here and now. I would like to remind what Bruce Krasting said earlier on the OMT (Finnish version here).

What happens now? The EU budget is still open, Italian elections are ahead, the bailout of Cyprus is to be agreed on, and then there is the zero growth, record-high uneployment and record-high debt levels. Greece is bound to disappoint again as well. I believe the euro crisis is lighting up again. Given what we've seen before during the past 3-5 years, we already know how this goes: 1) Problem denied 2) Problem ridiculed 3) Angry comments, lousy verbal intervention and stupid actions like banning short-selling etc 4) capitulation - either a) all hell breaks lose, debts are restructured and possibly the euro breaks or b) another massive 'believe me'-OMT-type solution  or 'death star'-guarantee vehicle will be presented.

Note that the next charts only paint the picture for the current week: market to continue selling off until the Thursday's ECB meeting - after that is finished and nothing comes out of the bank, perhaps we rally again. I'll update again. Oh yeah - click the charts for larger versions.

The zoomed-out hourly chart shows the rising channel and the previous major top - that is the target of this move. It would still be a correction in a bullish trend. I also marked what happened the last time after a fast correction.

The five-minute chart shows the last couple of day's fall in the EURUSD (including Friday's wild ride). Note that there has been no technical strength in the chart - the market has kept coming down 'like a waterfall'.
Given the 'waterfall' behavior, and that we have now returned to the previous resistance levels, what should we do? Eventual target 1.3400, currently 1.3500, 100 pips? Sell the pair.

Monday, February 4

4th Feb - US Close: Euro Again

I'll post a quick "views" and comments in an hour, but here are the links first.

4th Feb - US Open

4th Feb - EU Open

Saturday, February 2

2nd Feb - Weekender: Weekly Support

The last week reviewed – and the next previewed! Previous Weekly Support here.

2nd Feb - Credit Guest: House of pain and House of cards

Macronomics is here again to ruin our weekend of merry moods.

2nd Feb - Weekender: Best of the Week

Picks from my posts since the previous 'Best of'.

Friday, February 1