Google Analytics

Tuesday, February 12

12th Sep - US Close: FX War Horns



Nykyisen EU-kehityksen jatko on kiinni siitä, mitä Saksa päättää, eikä ne uskalla toimia ilman muiden maiden tukea - jos Saksa fantsuttelisi yksinään, niin se olisi niille poliittisesti liian raskasta. Sen takia tarvitaan satellitteja kuten Suomi, joiden avulla voidaan selittää sakupankkien tappioiden häivyttämiset "Euroopan pelastamiseksi" sekä jakaa kustannuksia. Saksalla ei ole paljon fantsuttelukavereita. Suomen linjan muuttuminen joku kaunis päivä on EU:lle isompi rätti kuin Iso-Britannian sooloilu. – MoreLiver 12-Feb-2013


Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter or Facebook

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Roundups & Commentary
News – Between The Hedges
Markets – Between The Hedges
The Closer – alphaville / FT

Tomorrow’s Tape: Retail Sales, Cisco, Whole Foods Earnings – WSJ
Morning Briefing (Asia): G7 Sends Mixed Message on Currencies – BNY Mellon
US: Oil Pops, Apple Drops, And Stocks Take Out More Stops – ZH


EUROPE
Reducing the EU's dependency on raw materialsEU
Good charts on what comes and from where.

  ECB
What chance a direct shot from the ECB?alphaville / FT
Little or none seems to be the answer…I wrote on Monday about the ECB’s options for expanding its balance sheet but skimmed over the idea of direct FX intervention on the presumption it just wasn’t going to happen and the ECB would push via less obvious channels. As I was (justifiably) rebuked, the aim here is to make quick amends.

ECB to Assess Impact of Euro’s Rise at March MeetingWSJ
The ECB will be able to analyze in greater detail the impact of the euro's appreciation on growth and inflation in the single-currency area when its economists present new forecasts at its March policy meeting, its president said Tuesday.

  PIIGS
Why the Irish Bank Deal Matters—Especially for CyprusPIIE
The Irish deal with the ECB and other European central banks to relieve the huge Irish debt burden resulting from the bank bailout four years ago has arrived even faster than predicted here. This is good news. The Irish government can now avoid the €3.1 billion promissory note payment due at the end of March and save some much needed cash. Moreover, the agreement illustrates the political flexibility of the euro area in designing financial support for a member trying to get out from under the tough terms of its rescue by the IMF.

The domestic-law geniealphaville / FT
The finance minister of eurozone country X declares (as Vassos Shiarly of Cyprus did on Monday) that its bonds/its banks’ bonds/their depositors simply cannot be written down. Why? Eurozone country X’s constitution and laws just don’t allow it! Well, on the contrary.

Euro-Skeptic Grillo Pushes for Italy Debt RenegotiationBB
Beppe Grillo, the Italian comic poised to play a spoiler in this month’s national elections, is gaining ground in opinion polls as he campaigns for sovereign debt relief to revive the country’s stagnant economy…Support for Grillo’s party rose to 18.8 percent in a Feb. 8 SWG Institute poll from 15.9 percent in a Jan 11 survey. That compares with a decline of 1.1 percentage points to 33.8 percent for Bersani and gains of 2.5 percentage points for Berlusconi over the same period.

UNITED STATES
  FED
Fed’s Lockhart Sees Bond Buying Continuing Into 2nd Half of 2013WSJ
The Fed will likely have to continue with its bond buying efforts into the second half of this year but needs to watch out for the possible formation of asset price bubbles, a key central bank official said.

Kansas City Fed’s George Warns About Current PolicyWSJ
The lone dissenting voice on the Federal Open Market Committee defended her hawkish philosophy Tuesday and reiterated her call for the Fed to proceed cautiously with easy money policies.

  STOCKS
About That Earnings AccelerationCrossing Wall Street

Q4 Earnings Outpacing EstimatesBespoke
With 70% of the Q4 reporting period now complete, earnings growth has been stronger than expected across the board.  The market appears to be responding accordingly. 

Explaining My Position on Secular Bear MarketsThe Big Picture

361 Capital Weekly Research BriefingThe Reformed Broker

ASIA
Kuroda Campaigns for BOJ PostMarc to Market

The yen: it's all about the CA deficitalphaville / FT
Based on the BoJ’s trade-weighted index, the yen actually peaked in October 2012, right before the first deficit in adjusted CA was released on 8 November 2012.

Japan Will Win the Currency War, but at What Cost?WSJ
This is the first step on the road to Japan’s recovery. It is a prime minister carefully observing the policies of the Federal Reserve and doing what
Japan has always done best — duplicate and improve upon.

OTHER
Bridgewater Bets on Stocks as Cash Moves Into MarketBB
Betting on global stocks and oil as it expects money to move into equities and other assets amid increased economic confidence.

CURRENCY WAR / G7 STATEMENT
G-7 Statement Postmortem And Five Years Of ContextZH

Group of Seven Roils Currency Markets With Split on Yen ConcernsBB
Group of Seven policy makers roiled the currency markets they sought to calm amid conflicting messages on how much of an economic threat is posed by the weakening yen.

What devaluation actually meansButtonwood / The Economist
Other governments don't seem to mind as long as the yen doesn't fall too fast and the Japanese don't say they are trying to weaken their currency. Or as Chris Turner, the head of FX strategy at ING, put it: It's fine to devalue, just don't talk about it

Who Will Win The Currency Wars?Asia Confidential / ZH

  BONDS
This is not 1994alphaville / FT
Dario Perkins at Lombard Street Research has a great little note out on Tuesday arguing why it’s absolutely wrong to assume the current bond sell-off is in any shape or form a repeat of 1994.

10-Year TechnicalsBespoke
As long as the yield continues to hold support in the near term without breaking below its uptrend channel, we're likely to see 2%+ again sooner rather than later.

What drove the 30yr mortgage rate higher?Sober Look

IN FINNISH
EU-budjetti – Euroopalle siedettävä, Suomelle surkeaSampo Terho
Federalisteille köniin EU-budjettiväännössäHenri Myllyniemi / piksu

Terhon työryhmä tunnistaa tosiasiat: verotus on jo tapissaPerussuomalainen
Terhon teesit tarkempaan syyniinPerussuomalainen
Europarlamentaarikko Sampo Terhon työryhmän raportti Suomen talouden pelastamisohjelmaksi sai kovaa kritiikkiä osakseen mm. perussuomalaisten eduskuntaryhmän johdolta. – Ymmärrän kritiikin, mutta tämä oli vasta keskustelun avaus, Terho painottaa.

Aikamme suurin poliittinen kysymys ei koske sukupuolista suuntautumistaJohannes Hirvaskoski / US Puheenvuoro
  
Kypros EU:n rahaministerien päähuolena BrysselissäTalSa
EU-maiden valtiovarainministereiden Ecofin-neuvostolla riitti huolia euron vahvistumisesta ja Kyproksen tukipaketista tiistaina Brysselissä. Saksa vaatii kriisimaiden julkisen velkaantumisen saamista kuriin.

Veronmaksaja, näin sinun rahojasi törsätään suomalaiseen mediaanMarkku Huusko / US Puheenvuoro

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter or Facebook