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Wednesday, May 22

22nd May - EU Open: Fed Day


Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups
News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Asia Morning MoneyBeat – WSJ
Europe Morning MoneyBeat – WSJ

MORNING BRIEFINGS
3 Numbers To Watch: UK Retail, UK CBI Ind. Trends, US Home SalesTradingFloor
Today’s retail sales and CBI Industrial Trends Survey updates will stress test the notion that the UK economy is strengthening. Meanwhile, analysts expect encouraging news today for US existing home sales.


Market Preview: FOMC and BoE minutes awaitedTradingFloor
European markets are expected to open lower Wednesday. Traders keenly await the FOMC and the BoE minutes to be released later today. Also, Ben Bernanke's testimony to Congress on the economic outlook is also likely to garner market interest.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
FOMC Minutes: It will be interesting to see how worried FOMC members were about
the softness in economic data received up to the meeting. Discussions (if any) about the timing of the QE exit should draw special attention. Fed chairman Bernanke’s testimony on the Economic Outlook
may also provide some information about the Fed’s view on the labour market and a possible exit from
the QE programme. Recent Fed speeches suggest an exit is not imminent, though. BoE Minutes: We expect the vote split on additional asset purchases to be unchanged from April (6-3 maintaining current policy). In fact, it is more likely the minority decreases given the recent small, but yet encouraging signs in the data flow. Watch out for Kuroda’s press conference following this morning’s Bank of Japan meeting

AamukatsausNordea
Bernanke puhuu korot laskuun * Kiinan asuntomarkkinat eivät uhkaa talouden vakautta * Fedin Evansin ja Dudleyn puheet painoivat dollaria

AamukatsausTapiola (pdf)


Julkaisimme eilen uudet sijoitussuositukset. ETF tuotteissa suosimme osakkeita matalla riskitasolla, unohtamatta arvostuspotentiaalia. Yrityslainoissa vaaditaan riskinottoa. Markkinan suunta: 
Keskuspankkiirien kommentit ohjaavat edelleen osakemarkkinoita, tällä kertaa ylöspäin.
Tänään lisäselvyyttä FED:n ajatteluun, kun edellisen korkokokouksen muistio julkaistaan.
Osakefutuurit nyt aamulla nollassa, indikoiden tasaista avausta OMX HEX:iin.
 

MarkkinakalenteriNordnet
MarkkinakalenteriTaloussanomat


EUROPE
EU leaders look to end Apple-style tax avoidance schemesReuters
Growing concern in European capitals about aggressive tax avoidance by high-profile corporations such as Amazon, Google and Apple looks set to steal the agenda of a European Union summit in Brussels on Wednesday.

Euro-area growth forecast update – slow for longerNordea
When it comes to Euro-area GDP growth (forecasters), you rarely fail to get disappointed. We revise down our GDP forecasts from -0.4% to -0.8% for 2013 and from 1.4%  to 1%  for next year. Whether this is still too optimistic will depend on whether our reasoning is correct.

UNITED STATES
And Then There is BernankeTim Duy’s Fed Watch
It seems that lacking a more clear, consistent framework for the exit from quantitative easing, the risk of miscommunication is high.  Hence, we are all looking toward tomorrow's speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to provide the clarity that appears very much needed.

Fed officials dampen talk of imminent bond buying cutback – Reuters
Fed's Bullard recommends euro zone consider QE – Reuters
Fed's Bullard: don't see support for negative rates – Reuters
Fed could end bond buys in autumn if jobs outlook sure: Evans – Reuters

ASIA
BOJ holds steady despite bond turmoil, upgrades economic outlook – Reuters
Bank of Japan Affirms Easing After Surge in Bond Yields – BB
BoJ maintains, but Abenomics is still hard – alphaville / FT