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Monday, September 30

30th Sep - US Close

30th Sep - US Open: Will the US close shop?

30th Sep - EU Open: Italy's fall, US's fails

The Italian government looks ready to fall. They just don't have the support they need. In Austria, the anti-euro agenda was a big winner, but not by enough - they will form a rainbow-government of all the parties except the anti-euro-parties, which will make the government weak and unfocused, just like in Finland and many other countries. But hey, anything for the euro!

US government shutdown probably happens after today. It will likely remain short, but markets might still make a big issue out of it.

Saturday, September 28

28th Sep - Weekender: Econ, Markets, Off-topic, Finnish

The good old debate on austerity is still going strong. Monetary policy is also questioned as the move from quantitative easing toward forward guidance is a recent trend by the US and UK.

28th Sep - Weekender: Europe & US

German election aftermath, the apparent backpedaling on the federal Europe and the looming US government shutdown are the main drivers right now. Italy's government looks like it could fall.

ECB's meeting next week will probably not do anything new, but might give further hints on a new LTRO, due later - if still needed at that point.

The Federal Reserve’s tapering is still featured heavily in articles, but will remain on hold probably until at least next December. Should the shutdown happen, even next Friday's unemployment report would perhaps not be published - effectively stopping the Fed from making informed decisions, and certainly pushing the tapering-date forward.

28th Sep - Weekender: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

Saturday, September 21

21st Sep - Weekender: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

Friday, September 20

Tuesday, September 17

17th Sep - US Open (having a break)

This will be my last post before a break until next weekend. Have a happy & safe FOMC!

17th Sep - EU Open

16th Sep - US Close

Monday, September 16

16th Sep - US Open: Choose your poison

Things have gotten interesting. Larry is out of the race, German elections might be tighter than previously thought, FOMC is due soon with their tapering decision. And Europe is as it has been for many years - complacent.

An anonymous commentator in Finnish:

16th Sep - EU Open

16th Sep - Special: Summers is Out!

Sunday, September 15

15th Sep - Credit Guest: The Cantillon Effects

This week's credit market summary - or should I say a tome of biblical proportions - from Macroeconomics.

Friday, September 13

13th Aug - US Open

13th Sep - Weekender: Best of the Week

The best articles from the ending week. Some of them on Europe are classics. Last week’s ‘Best of’ here.

13th Sep - EU Open

Wednesday, September 11

11th Sep - US Close

11th Sep - US Open

Special: German Elections 2013

This post is updated as new material is published (latest ones at the top of the post)

11th Sep - EU Open

Monday, September 9

9th Sep - US Close

9th Sep - US Open

9th Sep - Credit Guest: The tourist trap

This week's critical mass of credit talk from Macronomics:

9th Sep - EU Open links

Citi Credit Weekly Aug-2 2013:
…both Italian and Spanish government bonds’ haircut levels at the ECB are clinging on to the “AAA to A” category thanks only to a lone A rating (on negative outlook) from DBRS. Thanks to the ECB’s even more surprising recent increase in haircut levels for BBB governments, a one-notch downgrade from DBRS would result in a five-to-tenfold increase in margins payable.

In credit, we love it when banks go out and raise equity, but that is not always an option. If even Deutsche reckons the best way to cope is by shedding €300bn in assets (presumably with a bias to better-quality ones), what does that imply for the periphery?

Saturday, September 7

Friday, September 6

Thursday, September 5

5th Sep - US Close

 There is so much hope now riding on "modest recovery", "euro crisis contained by OMT and existing programmes" and "tapering" that it reminds me of the previous attempt higher. So two scenarios: 1) either we return to "normal times"-yield levels as all is well and Europe will become either a federal union or the PIIGS will turn into germanies - or 2) crisis makes a comeback and we will see something similar to the last time that "crisis was over".
 One monetary policy for all the European nations without a fiscal union and common backstops?

5th Sep - US Open

5th Sep - Special: ECB Watch

I will update this post during and after the event. The usual: at 1145 GMT we get the decision, and 1230 GMT president Draghi reads the pre-written statement and answers questions from the press.

5th Sep: ECB, FED dates & EURUSD

Click for a larger version. The red vertical lines are ECB meeting dates that have a press conference, the blue lines are FED meeting dates that have a press conference. In the past, the ECB dates have provided the EURUSD with volatility and direction. Let's see if this return from the holidays-meeting continues that tradition.

5th Sep - EU Open: BoE, ECB ahead

Wednesday, September 4

4th Aug - US Close

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups & Commentary
Markets – Between The Hedges
Daily Risk MonitorGlobal Macro Monitor
The Closer – alphaville / FT
US: McCain Sparks Stocks Best Day In A Month As Bonds Drops To 25 Month Low – ZH

Draghi Gets Another Chance to Push ECB’s Forward GuidanceWSJ

The value in vaguealphaville / FT
JP Morgan economist really would like the ECB chief to use the opportunity to expand upon the word “extended” when offering interest rate guidance.

Greece: Troika demands that Athens liquidate arms industrypresseurop

A third way forward for EuropePresseurop
The intergovernmental method established by the Maastricht Treaty may well be insufficient to overcome divisions between member states, however, the much vaunted solution of radical federalism is even less viable. If a balance is to be restored, a compromise must be found.

Fed exit options, table du jouralphaville / FT
Which part of future Fed tightening “is now completely up in the air”? The answer (according to Societe Generale) is in the useful table

It's the what, not the whoFree exchange / The Economist
Larry Summers will be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. It is roughly as unclear as it has always been, which is very, what that will mean for monetary policy.

Worse Than Expected US Trade Deficit, Trade Gaps With China, EU Rise To Record – ZH

Beware the EM central bank FX swap trendalphaville / FT
If you’re an central bank in emerging markets, struggling to keep your economy stimulated/protected from hot money flows, using swaps or FX sales is a tempting and viable alternative to interest rate hikes. And generally speaking, the BNP EM strategists argue, swaps provide for a richer toolset for most central banks.

4th Sep - US Open

4th Sep - EU Open

Monday, September 2

2nd Sep - US "open": German elections

2nd Sep - EU Open: A big week ahead

A lot of material, but the week is also an important one. Tin hats on.

Sunday, September 1

1st Sep - Credit Guest: Misstra Know-it-all

Here is this week's cross-post from Macronomics, the sees-it-all eye on the sky.