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Monday, September 9

9th Sep - EU Open links


Citi Credit Weekly Aug-2 2013:
…both Italian and Spanish government bonds’ haircut levels at the ECB are clinging on to the “AAA to A” category thanks only to a lone A rating (on negative outlook) from DBRS. Thanks to the ECB’s even more surprising recent increase in haircut levels for BBB governments, a one-notch downgrade from DBRS would result in a five-to-tenfold increase in margins payable.

In credit, we love it when banks go out and raise equity, but that is not always an option. If even Deutsche reckons the best way to cope is by shedding €300bn in assets (presumably with a bias to better-quality ones), what does that imply for the periphery?

 
Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups
News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Asia Morning MoneyBeat: Investors Bet On Battered Markets – WSJ
Europe Morning MoneyBeat – WSJ


MORNING BRIEFINGS
3 Numbers to Watch: EU Sentix, US ETI, US consumer creditTradingFloor
The EU Sentix Investor Confidence Index will shed further light on the nascent Eurozone recovery while the US Employment Trends Index, and US consumer credit also make it on to the shortlist of numbers to watch today.


Market Preview: Robust China trade data surprises; EU Sentix eyedTradingFloor
European markets are likely to open higher Monday. Traders will eye today's EU Sentix confidence data for further cues. Meanwhile, data showed that Chinese trade surplus widened more than forecast, while Japan's GDP was revised upwards in Q2.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
With few important data releases today, focus will be on the US decision on Syria, as Congress is likely to vote this week on whether to carry out a strike…Fed’s Williams (non-voter, dove) is due to speaks… Italian politics may also again attract attention as the senate committee starts expulsion proceedings against former PM Berlusconi. The issue risks splitting the Italian coalition government in two.

Market comment: G20 divided on SyriaNordea
Bond yields fall on weaker than expected US payrolls * US employment report disappoints *  No consensus on Syria during G20 summit * Retail sales & consumer confidence numbers from the US this week * Plenty of issuance ahead

AamukatsausNordea
Euroteollisuus köhii vieläkin * USA:n työllisyyskasvu petti…mikä painoi jenkkikorkoja ja heikensi dollaria

AamukatsausTapiola (pdf)

MarkkinakalenteriNordnet
MarkkinakalenteriTaloussanomat


EUROPE
Monetary policy and financial stability under one roofECB
Keynote Speech at the 6th Policy Roundtable of the European Central Bank: “The future of global policy coordination”, Yves Mersch, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, 6 September 2013

UNITED STATES
Why Janet Yellen, Not Larry Summers, Should Lead the FedJoseph Stiglitz / Opinioator

Are We There Yet?FED
A speech delivered by Charles Evans on September 6, 2013, at the AgFirst Summit

Is The U.S. Dollar Set To Spike?Asia Confidential
Does America’s energy boom change everything? * Possible impact on Asia & beyond * Potential problems with thesis

Is This As Good As It Gets?ZH
Not only is the macro surprise index near its normalized highs (suggesting there is not much room for further positive surprises here) but each time the pace of apparent improvement has been so fast, the US equity market has faded lower as "hard" data simply does not support the hope in the markets and "soft" data.

Why the credit market matters to US equitiesHumble Student
If Financials, which had been providing the bulk of the earnings growth for the market, start to falter, then what happens to stock prices (unless other sectors start to pick up the pace)? For now, credit conditions hold the key to earnings growth and therefore the outlook for US equity prices.

ASIA
Evidence mounts that China had escaped the worst of emerging markets routSober Look
Economists React: China Exports Up Again in AugustWSJ

OTHER
FX Comment: goldilocks Nordea

Thoughts on the Week Ahead Marc to Market
1) Australia drove out the Labor government 2) China reported a larger than expected August trade surplus 3) results of the Moscow election

Things That Make You Go Hmmm...  Grant Williams / ZH
Like Ben "Barrel'o'Monkeys" Bernanke

G-20 Ignores Elephant in Room: Unstable Global Financial System WSJ

Goldman's Quick Answers To Tough EM QuestionsZH

Book Bits | 9.7.13The Capital Spectator

Is Forward Guidance Already Dead?ZH
bofAML suggests that recent evidence shows the effectiveness of forward guidance is diminishing... already.

FINNISH
Heikki Koskenkylä: Holtittoman rahankäytön on loputtavaPS
Eurokriisi on jatkunut jo neljä vuotta, eikä loppua näy. Suomen talous on heikentynyt jatkuvasti ja pysynyt pinnalla vain mittavalla velkaelvytyksellä. Talousasiantuntija Heikki Koskenkylä arvioi, että Suomella on edessä pitkä ja raskas sopeutuminen, eikä Euroopasta ole odotettavissa vetoapua.

Ykkösaamu: 07.09.2013YLE
Perussuomalaisten puheenjohtaja Timo Soini on Jari Korkin vieraana.

Työn tarjonta ja työttömyysAkateeminen talousblogi

Asuntojen myyntiajat pidentyneetPiksu

Jussi Niinistö: Eurokriisi ei ole ohiPS