IMF's WEO was discussed in the previous post. Today, again, the US shutdown and debt ceiling are on the agenda. But some very nice ones on Europe as well...
Previously on
MoreLiver’s:
Roundups &
Commentary
News – Between
The Hedges
Markets – Between
The Hedges
Recap – Global Macro Trading
Daily Risk Monitor – Global
Macro Monitor
The Closer – alphaville / FT
EUROPE
Andrew Duff and Guy
Verhofstadt propose a new ‘fundamental law’ to replace the EU’s existing treaty
framework. This incorporates a federal union in which the European Commission
is transformed into a full democratic constitutional government and the European
Court of Justice takes on the responsibilities of a supreme court. They argue
that a European Union reformed along these lines would be more efficient,
transparent, and accountable.
Jens Weidmann Aims a Low Blow at Rule-Breakers – WSJ
Great Graphic: A Look at LTROs – Marc
to Market
The pending stress tests will likely accelerate [repayments] the risk is
that as the LTRO repayments are made, it further reduces the excess liquidity
in the euro system and may exert upward pressure on money market rates.
Penalties planned for banks receiving ECB aid – FT
EU regulators
overseeing next year’s long-awaited stress tests of the region’s banks are
preparing to penalise any lender that remains reliant on the European Central
Bank’s landmark cheap funding scheme.
UNITED STATES
Market Breadth Worries! – Short
Side of the Long
This is where all the money goes – alphaville
/ FT
The two tables on
where the money lies in the US and who looks after it are worth bringing to a
wider audience
FEDERAL
RESERVE
Credibility on the Line – Tim
Duy’s Fed Watch
Federal Reserve
communications are in disarray in the midst of a lack of internal consensus
about either the costs and benefits of QE or the parameters for ending QE. This does not bode well for an institution
that increasingly relies on forward guidance to implement policy.
Time for Fed to rethink its forward guidance? – WSJ
Last month’s surprise
may have increased the odds that the committee will rework its forward guidance
in some way
Fed’s Plosser: FOMC
Missed ‘Excellent Opportunity’ to Taper in September – WSJ
Fed’s Pianalto Could
Have Supported September Taper – WSJ
SHUTDOWN
/ DEBT CEILING
Economic Confidence Posts Fastest Drop Since
2008 Crisis – WSJ
US Runs Out Of Cash As Soon As October 22
Revised BPC Forecast Shows – ZH
It's terrifying what some top Republicans
believe about the debt ceiling
– WaPo
The left thinks business controls the
Republican Party. They're wrong.
– WaPo
10 ways the shutdown is making us less safe – WaPo
VIX Breaks 20% And Stocks Hit 1-Month Lows As
T-Bill Terror Strikes – ZH
Bonds Now Expecting Worse Debt Ceiling
Confrontation Than August 2011, Stocks - Not So Much – ZH
1 Month Bill Yield Explodes, Prices At 0.35%
Highest Since Lehman – ZH
What's happening in the Treasury bill market
today should terrify you – WaPo
The Roots of the Government Shutdown – Stratfor
/ Econmatters
George Friedman: Each
faction is deeply committed to its beliefs, and feels it would be corrupt to
abandon them. Even if it means closing the government, even if it means
defaulting on debt, ideology is a demanding mistress who permits no other
lovers.
Obama Warns "No Magic Bullets",
Exploring "All Default Contingencies" – ZH
ASIA
Yen, Abenomics and Portfolio Flows – Marc
to Market
OTHER
The 106 Finance People You Have To Follow On
Twitter – BI
INSIGHTS Q4 OUTLOOK Saxo / TradingFloor
Nick Beecroft: Compromising factors – TradingFloor
The year of sticking
to the well-trodden path was perhaps best epitomised by the US Fed’s
last-minute loss of faith on tapering, an about-face decision that has damaged
its credibility.
Ole Hansen: Holding fast – TradingFloor
The no-taper decision
may have been a boon for equities, but commodity markets are driven by demand
and prices. With the US economy spluttering and China’s growth subdued, the fourth quarter will be
stable for oil.
Mads Koefoed: Debt-ceiling curveball – TradingFloor
The global economy
looks set for some acceleration into the New Year, but the annual US political battle over the budget and the
impact it has on the debt ceiling could throw a curveball into the economic
picture.
John J. Hardy: Hard landing – TradingFloor
The US Fed’s failure
to give tapering lift-off at the tail end of Q3 may have sounded the death
knell for its credibility, but it has also left markets wondering if it was
nothing more than a one-meeting delay.
Peter Garnry: Aiming for new highs – TradingFloor
As the global economy
continues to make a slow recovery, not even the ‘joker’ of the US debt-ceiling bomb can stop equities soaring.
Steen Jakobsen: Driven to distraction – TradingFloor
As world growth looks
set to slow again and fiscal spending cuts and emerging
market woes move up the agenda, central banks are facing excruciating decisions – and the clock is ticking.
market woes move up the agenda, central banks are facing excruciating decisions – and the clock is ticking.
FINNISH
Ennusteitakin
kovempi tulos – Juhani
Huopainen
Koskenkylä:
Hallituksen rakennepaketti on tyhjä tynnyri – PS
Hallituksen rakennepoliittisessa ohjelmassa on
18 sivua toiveita, tavoitteita ja hurskastelua. Kehittämisestä puhutaan yli 100
kertaa, konkreettisuutta on kovin vähän. Suomen Pankin ex-johtaja Heikki Koskenkylä
analysoi ohjelman ehdotusten kestävyyttä ja sen mahdollisuuksia saattaa Suomi
uudelleen nousuun.