Looks like every major market from EURJPY to SPX is testing some sort of key technical level this week - add in the first November soft data (PMI) and the waiting of further instructions from the three central banks that are running the show, we could be in for a dull week.
Highlights of the week are the FOMC minutes on Wed and the European Markit PMIs on Thu.
Previously on
MoreLiver’s:
Weekender: Weekly Support (updated)
KEVA
/ Merja Ailus / Keskusta special (updated)
EUROPE
Though trade union
density and its trends vary considerably across Western European countries, in
most of them the current density has fallen down in comparison to 30 years ago.
This column reviews some explanations for the decline of unionisation and
discusses some of the challenges unions need to face. Union membership could
still be stabilised because it is embedded in social, economic, and political
structures of the western European countries.
If structural weaknesses matter so much, they should affect growth in
the long term (not just during crisis). If one compares the evolution of GDP
growth since 1994 among some of these countries, the picture looks very
different.
Mats Persson:
“National parliaments are the solution to the EU’s democratic deficit” – Europp
/ LSE
Draghi’s Rate Cut
Puts ECB Into Holding Pattern Until Next Year – BB
While a majority in a
Bloomberg survey say the ECB’s most probable next move is a
measure such as long-term loans, 77 percent of those see it happening in the
first or second quarter of 2014. Just 9 percent see Draghi
taking action in December.
The economy -- the second-biggest in the euro area after Germany -- is in deep
trouble, and the government looks helpless. Seemingly intractable problems and
a lack of effective leadership threaten to turn France into Europe’s new Italy.
ASIA
China: Extensive reform plans do not change short-term growth
Third Plenum cheat
sheet
– FT
But my overall reaction is that the
conservative/Austrian/monetarist/classical liberal/libertarian/RBC schools of
thought are too influenced by a combination of massive deficits, massive QE,
near-zero interest rates, and simply assume that with all this stimulus we must
have high inflation, or else it’s just around the corner.
USD failed the test
last week, but may fight back later this week – TradingFloor
The US dollar failed
to follow through stronger last week as it neared key resistance in places. But
any further weakening after Friday’s rout may be relatively limited this week.
Bitcoin goes vertical
in speculative frenzy – Sober
Look
Summers on bubbles
and secular stagnation forever – FT
Kit Juckes at SocGen notes that big name economists have seized upon the
secular stagnation themes referred to by Summers, and are now mutually
legitimising the idea that something significant — beyond the banking crisis —
is changing the way our economy works. Notably that even bubbles aren’t enough
to offset the forces at play.
Jordan Belfort, the
Real Wolf of Wall Street – Businessweek
Steven Cohen: The
Gilded Age revisited – Reuters
FINNISH
Valtio-opin professori haukkuu hallituksen
salakähmäisyyttä EU-asioissa – HS
Asiantuntija
vertaa Suomen avoimuutta EU-asioiden päätöksenteossa Vatikaaniin
Valtioneuvoston selonteko EU-politiikasta
2013 – VNK
Niklas
Herlinillä on yli 800 miljoonan euron omaisuus, mutta hän haluaisi elää kuin
kuka tahansa. Enää hän ei kuitenkaan voi tehdä niin.
Jungner kirjassa: Poliitikko ahdistuu, kun
törmää byrokraattiseen hyytelöön – HS
Saksalaisten pakkomielle inflaation suhteen
olisi koomista jos se ei olisi niin vaarallista – Tyhmyri
Saksa on tyypillisen
epäsolidaarinen
Millaisena nähdään Suomen tilanne – Mikko
Aaltonen / US
Suomi ei aja etujaan – Pekka
Tiusanen / US
Hyppää Mario, hyppää! – TalSa
On
edesvastuutonta olla painamatta rahaa Euroopassa.
Asumisen verotusta korotetaan reippaasti,
vaikka veroprosenttiin ei kosketa – TE