3rd Mar - Ukraine & Feb PMIs

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

W/E: Linkfest

W/E: Random Charts

W/E: Weekly Support

Special: Follow Ukraine

W/E: Best of the Week

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter

EUROPE

The ECB is irrelevant and the Euro is a failure – Pieria

Frances Coppola: The Euro is a failed experiment. We should not waste any more effort trying to make it work. It is time to consign it to the dust of history.

  UKRAINE

Two myths about the Ukrainian conflict – Sober Look

Bank Rossii unexpectedly hikes rates to save RUB – Danske Bank

Translation of the G8 G7 Statement on Ukraine – Macro Man

Putin builds up armour near Crimea, Russian assets plummet – Reuters

EU pushes mediation rather than sanctions against Russia – Reuters

Ukraine Tells Russia Invasion Means War as Putin Makes Plans – Businessweek

Ukraine told Russia that a military invasion would be an act of war following a vote by lawmakers in Moscow to give President Vladimir Putin the right to send troops after pro-Russian forces seized control of Crimea.

Putin Grab for Crimea Shows Trail of Warning Signs West Ignored – BB

Putin’s been cautioning the U.S. and other North Atlantic Treaty Organization states for at least six years not to impede Russian interests in Ukraine, particularly in the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, home to its largest overseas naval base.

Putin Declares War – WSJ

Will Obama and Europe let him get away with carving up Ukraine?

The reverse Berlin Wall? Russia, Ukraine and the markets – Steen Jakobsen / TradingFloor

Russia is in a corner — politically, economically and strategically and unless a real economic reform takes hold, the country will plunge into recession this year. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian crisis could have devastating consequences for us all.

Pressure Rising as Obama Works to Rein In Russia – NYT

Merkel of Germany told Mr. Obama by telephone on Sunday that after speaking with Mr. Putin she was not sure he was in touch with reality, people briefed on the call said. “In another world,” she said.

Markets Viewpoint: Crimea can jolt markets but not lasting – Nordea

The situation in Ukraine continues to escalate. The economic situation in Ukraine remains dire. Some similarities to the Russo-Georgian war in 2008. We expect markets to be jittery: yields on Bunds and Treasuries to drop, equities weighed down, oil and gold to go up and a strengthening of the USD across the board. However, we do not expect the current crisis to escalate to an all-out-war and markets will revert to look at fundamentals within days or weeks.

Investors Desert Russian Stocks – WSJ

Roundup of Views on Ukraine Crisis Escalation – WSJ

MANUFACTURING PMI

Emerging markets upside surprise offsets G10 disappointment – TradingFloor

Mads Koefoed: Negative emerging market sentiment has not been hard to locate recently, which has translated to low expectations for economic data. But those expectations have so far been more than matched by actual data releases, surprising to the upside.

  CHINA PMI

PMI signals modest deterioration of business conditions in February – Markit

China Factory Index Decline Adds to Li Growth Challenges – BB

Slumps To 8-Month Low, Services PMI To 3-Month High – ZH

China's services, manufacturing sectors diverge in February – Reuters

  OTHERS

South Korea, China, Vietnam, Taiwan, Indonesia, Russia, India, Ireland, Turkey, Poland, Netherlands, Spain, Czech Republic, Italy, France, Germany, Eurozone

OTHER

Emerging Market Banking Crises Are Next – James Gruber

Chinese whispers * The great economic rebalancing * More EM drama to come * Winners and losers

Will emerging markets come back? – mpettis

Emerging markets may well rebound strongly in the coming months, but any rebound will face the same ugly arithmetic. Ordinary households in too many countries have seen their share of total GDP plunge. Until it rebounds, the global imbalances will only remain in place, and without a global New Deal, the only alternative to weak demand will be soaring debt. Add to this continued political uncertainty, not just in the developing world but also in peripheral Europe, and it is clear that we should expect developing country woes only to get worse over the next two to three years.

FX: degrees of freedom – Nordea

FINNISH

Kruunun merkitys Ruotsin menestykselle – Roger Wessman

Finlands sak är svår – Lars Calmfors / DN

I vanliga fall har valet av valutasystem ingen större betydelse, där­emot i kritiska lägen. Finland hade haft lättare att möta sin strukturkris om man inte gått över till euron.

Tarkemmat BKT-luvut vähemmän huolestuttavia – Roger Wessman

Verokertymä kasvoi vuonna 2013 – Tilastokeskus

Julkisen talouden alijäämä 2%, velka 56,9% vs BKT vuonna 2013 – Tilastokeskus

BKT -0,3% qoq, -0,6 yoy – Tilastokeskus

Bruttokansantuote 2013 supistui 1,4%  – Tilastokeskus

Suomen julkinen alijäämä ja velka alle EU:n viitearvojen – Verkkouutiset

  UKRAINA

NATO-ovi kolahti kiinni – Jyrki J.J. Kasvi / US

Mitä meidän tulee oppia Venäjän aggressiosta Ukrainaa kohtaan – Professorin ajatuksia