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EUROPE
In Euro We Trust – Craig
Willy
Are European institutions the secular descendants of the medieval
Church?
How rich nations benefit from EU membership – voxeu.org
One concern with EU
enlargement is that relatively poorer countries benefit more from becoming
members. This column uses data from the 1973 and 1995 enlargements to show that
richer countries also benefited a lot from joining the EU. Per capita incomes
would have been considerably lower had these countries not joined the EU when
they did. Yet, the difference between the estimated benefits for 1973 and 1995
enlargements is large, and thus, should not be attributed to differences in per
capita incomes at the time of joining.
Euro crisis 2.0 will
need a new shock absorber – Reuters
European banks kept yields in check by buying sovereign debt in 2010-13.
Now that Basel III rules force losses to be deducted from capital, banks like
BPI are shedding their holdings. It unpicks the notorious “doom loop,” but
leaves the ECB explicitly on the hook in future.
Putin's Rejection of
the West, in Writing – View
/ BB
A document called "Foundations of the State Cultural Policy"
has been under development since 2012. A special working group under Putin's
chief of staff Sergei Ivanov will soon roll it out for a month of "public
debate" before Putin gets to sign it. Quotes from the culture ministry's
draft, presumably the basis for the final one, have leaked out.
Putin Debt to Equity
Hit on Crimea Seizure: Russia Reality Check – BB
SEK FI & FX
Strategy - Riksbank scenario analysis – Nordea
The rate
announcement on 9th April is an important one, with the capability of
shaping the trading pattern for quite a while. In this analysis we discuss
three different scenarios and the likely market implication
Charlemagne: Trading
places
– The
Economist
How China is affecting Europe’s position in the world.
Frost in spring: The
recovery may be warming but inflation is cooling – The
Economist
Seen from another standpoint the euro zone is an accident waiting to
happen. As inflation slips ever lower, a slide into Japanese-style deflation
looks increasingly likely. That would raise an already onerous debt burden in
real terms and pull down growth.
„Trilog“:
Schatten-Gremium beschließt EU-Gesetze – DWN
Google
Translation Shadow body decides EU laws: In the EU, a secret body has
assumed the government shops: in the so-called trialogue drop the decisions
about laws off the already rudimentary democratic structures. The elections to
the EU Parliament are a farce against this background. Europe's citizens will
be extras in a bad political theater.
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
Where did the ECB "get" all of these bright and original
ideas? Why Goldman Sachs of course,
Draghi Deflation
Fight Seen on Different QE Path to Fed – BB
While U.S. firms tap markets for about three quarters of their lending,
companies in the euro region rely on loans from banks for the same proportion
of their borrowing. That makes it harder for the ECB to use asset purchases as
a way to improve credit conditions for small-and-medium sized enterprises
ECB models trillion
euro asset purchase program: newspaper – Reuters
ECB has modelled the effects of buying a trillion Euros of assets to
ward off deflation, a German newspaper reported on Friday, a day after the
ECB's president said radical policy action might be needed.
ECB must spend big to
lift prices, study shows – CNBC
ECB would need to buy assets worth €1 trillion ($1.4 trillion) to lift
inflation by as little as a fifth of a percentage point,
Is the €-area in 2014
like Japan on the dawn of deflation? – Money
Matters
If you are impatient and somewhat trust my judgment, let me give first
my synthetic answer to the title question: out of the five criteria I use to
compare the current situation in the €-area to that in Japan at the end of the
´90s, two (current situation of the banking sector and inflationary
expectations) do not indicate that the €-area is in a better position than
Japan when it was about
CRISIS COUNTRIES
EC & ECB
Statement following surveillance mission to Spain – ECB
UNITED STATES
FEDERAL RESERVE
Tighter Fed Policy
Will Boost Economy – BB
The increasing likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate increase
next year should help rather than slow the U.S. economy, according to UBS AG.
Fed Releases Staff Memos Prepared for December
2008 Policy Meeting – WSJ
the release of a
package of memos Fed staff prepared for officials in December 2008 ahead of
that month’s policy meeting. Policy makers at that meeting ventured into
uncharted territory for the Fed, voting to cut short-term interest rates to
effectively zero. The memos on the costs and benefits of the policy options at
the Fed’s disposal were unveiled by former Fed official Joseph Gagnon in a blog
post Friday for the Peterson Institute for International Economics
It IS about the risk
premium! – Humble
Student
Unless we start to see blowout macro data, such as the upcoming jobs
report, or Earning Season brings such surprising good news as to boost the
earnings growth outlook, investors may wish to think about selling in May and
to go away.
More Wall Street economists
see rate hike in first half of 2015 – Reuters
More Wall Street economists now believe the Federal Reserve will raise
interest rates in the first half of 2015, as evidence builds that the U.S.
economy has regained some momentum lost during an unusually rough winter, a
survey showed on Friday.
Fed Gov. Jeremy Stein
is resigning. Here are his greatest hits. – WaPo