14th Dec - W/E: Linkfest

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W/E: Weekly Support

Friday: Eyes turning to FOMC

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EUROPE

Do not exaggerate progress made in CEE since the fall of the Berlin Wall – Europp / LSE

Eurosceptics Threaten the Survival of the Stability and Growth Pact – euinside

European Commission stamps out a cartel—for envelopes! – Quartz

Juncker Said Luxembourg’s “Fiscal Environment” Helped Land Skype – WSJ

Greece and the euro: Crisis revisited – The Economist

The euro is still vulnerable, and Greece is not the only problem

Eurozone bank integration: EU versus non-EU banks – voxeu

Eurozone financial integration is reversing, with 2013 cross-border capital flows at 40% of their 2007 level. This column discusses research showing that banking integration has in fact strengthened in the rest of the world.

  EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

Quantitative easing is the last throw of the eurozone dice – FT

If the ECB moves to full QE against the wishes of the German members of the governing council, the damage to the ECB’s credibility would be devastating…Yet if Mr Draghi, the president, does persuade the Germans that the ECB’s legal mandate cannot be fulfilled without QE, it would send a curious signal.

Divisions at the ECB: Draghi and the dissenters – The Economist

Draghi now has all the ammunition he needs for QE – Sober Look

Implementation still a problem

  CRISIS COUNTRIES

Goldman Warns Greeks: "Cyprus-Style" If They Vote Wrong – ZH

Greek Reminder Of Sovereign-Bank Doom Loop – WSJ

The coming Grexit tragedy is really a European farce – FT

If you are looking for anyone who has an interest in setting off a new Greek crisis, do not search Wall Street or the City of London. Rather, look to Brussels, Frankfurt and the other European capitals where there is a populist threat to be seen off.

Greece’s crisis: Samaras’s gamble – The Economist

An early presidential vote could spell trouble for Greece’s government—and for the future of the euro

Reforming France: Emmanuel Macron's Impossible Mission – Spiegel

Thirty-six year old Economics Minister Emmanuel Macron has been tasked by French President Hollande with reforming the country. But it won't be easy. Socialists view him with suspicion and the party's left wing is already preparing for battle.

Fitch Downgrades France To AA: Full Text – ZH

UNITED STATES

Global: has the Fed's unprinting been impacting markets? – Nordea

The Fed’s test-driving of various facilities has led to a sharp drop in excess liquidity in recent months, something we’ve nick-named Quantitative Tightening. This may have been one driver of dollar strength and disinflationary markets this autumn. If the Fed finds a way to control money market rates without absorbing as much liquidity, markets would “only” have to deal with a Fed seemingly dead-set on hiking rates by the middle of 2015

Goldman: FOMC Preview – Calculated Risk

We May Wait a Considerable Time to See a Removal of ‘Considerable Period’ – GMT

Unprecedented Actions – FED

The Federal Reserve's Response to the Global Financial Crisis in Historical Perspective

The Federal Reserve: Opportunistic overheating – The Economist

  

ASIA

China’s 2015 goal: Staying in business – TradingFloor

Monetary easing and stimulus spending will be “flexible” to support growth * Upgrading the economy remains the government's key priority * Expect frequent policy tweaks in what will be a bumpy year for the economy

Emphatic win for Abe in Japan election – FT

LDP set to win about 300 of 475 seats, according to exit polls

Prepare for the coming Japanese boom – FT

Country sees strengthening of solvency thanks to stock of net overseas assets

MARKETS

Short-Term Inflation Expectations Have Crashed To 5 Year Lows – ZH

2014: The Year in Charts – Alpha Now

122 Things Everyone Should Know About Investing and the Economy – Fool

The dark side of technical analysis – Adam Grimes

Political risk returns to haunt the Christmas season – The Economist

Big banks find they are in yet another hole over capital – The Economist

Warnings of a potential bloodbath in bonds – FT

There is a big disconnect between the US Federal Reserve and the international bond markets. It is a disconnect that could lead to one of the biggest sell-offs in bonds for a long time.

ECONOMICS

Helicopter money – next year's Christmas present? – Nordea

Managing financial deregulation: lessons from the Nordic countries for China – Suomen pankki

Can Interest Rate Factors Explain Exchange Rate Fluctuations? – FED

Equilibrium Sovereign Default with Exchange Rate Depreciation – FED

The Macroeconomic Effects of Debt- and Equity-Based Capital Inflows – FED

Cyclically Adjusted Current Account Balances – FED

Global Asset Prices and the Taper Tantrum Revisited – FED

Växelkursdepreciering när styrräntans nedre gräns binder – Ekonomistas

Yield Curve and Monetary Policy Expectations in Small Open Economies – FED

Exchange Rates and Financial Globalization – IMF

The Bank of Canada on the risks of high household debt and overpriced housing – FT

Central-bank credibility, reputation and inflation targeting in historical perspective – voxeu

Has international trade’s share of the world’s GDP peaked? – The Economist

Counter-cyclical capital controls: great in theory, less useful in practice – The Economist

OFF-TOPIC

Isis: the inside story – The Guardian

One of the Islamic State’s senior commanders reveals exclusive details of the terror group’s origins inside an Iraqi prison – right under the noses of their American jailers. Report by Martin Chulov

Steve Jobs Predicted The Future Of E-Commerce In 1996 – BI

James Bond finally falls for a woman his own age – WaPo

100 Notable Books of 2014 – NYT

‘You will not be arrested for using drugs’: What a sane drug policy looks like – WaPo

The Japanese Art of Decluttering and Organizing – Farnam Street

Afghanistan: The Making of a Narco State – Rolling Stone

After 13 years of war, the United States has helped create a nation ruled by drug lords.

Five reasons Japan could never have won WW2 – Noahpinion

The march of artificial intelligence is a long way off – FT

We have more than enough real near-term challenges to deal with

We Can’t Trust Uber – NYT

Why your brain loves procrastination – VOX

World Robotics 2014 Industrial Robots – World Robotics

This is what it feels like to be unemployed for years – VOX

Broken windows, broken lives – Coppola Comment

FINNISH

Euro ei jousta, joten sinä joustat – Jan Hurri / TalSa

Oma kansallinen valuutta joustaisi ja tasoittaisi talouden suhdanteita, mutta euro on toista maata. Se ei jousta ainakaan pienen Suomen tarpeiden mukaan. Siksi meillä jonkun muun on joustettava. Euroalueen keskuspankki EKP patistaa palkkojen alennuksiin. Tutkijat varoittavat pakkokeinoista.

Huumeiden vastainen sota on hävitty – nyt etsitään vaihtoehtoja – YLE

Asein ja myrkyin käytävään taisteluun on uponnut satoja miljardeja dollareita. Silti huumeiden käyttö ei ole vähentynyt. Latinalaisessa Amerikassa keskustellaan yhä avoimemmin tiukasta kieltopolitiikasta luopumisesta. Katso, millaista on huumerikollisuuden maantiede ja miten tähän on tultu.

Konsultokratia tulee kalliiksi Helsingin kaupungin veronmaksajille – Professorin ajatuksia

Verojen kevennykset ja valtion verokertymä – Lafferin käyrä ja todellisuuden monimuotoisuus – Tyhmyri

Kuinka tehdä todellinen sisäinen devalvaatio – piruileva ehdotus – Tyhmyri