Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
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EUROPE
Growth in 2014
Q4, of 0.3% across the euro area as a whole, masked a somewhat varied
performance from member state to member state. And for countries where debt
sustainability is an issue, it is nominal growth that matter at least as much
as real economic growth.
Next
Week's Other Deadline
– Marc
to Market
Greece has been an important catalyst for
much of the institutional evolution within Europe since 2010.
The framework developed so that Greece can keep its official creditors
whole, such as the EFSF and ESM, was rolled out to other countries subsequently.
Draghi
QE Plan Seen Challenged by Hoarders Amassing Bonds – BB
UK inflation was 0.3% in January - new
historic low – Danske
Bank
Swedish
January inflation spot on Riksbank forecast – Danske
Bank
GREECE
Juhani
Huopainen: Eurogroup talks on Greek debt turn into a game of leaks – TF
Yet another
meeting of the European leaders has failed to find a solution to Greece's ending bailout program. Dubbed
the last chance, in reality they weren't that at all, and the true end game is
just about to start. I expect a last-minute, face-saving compromise that pushes
decisions about the really difficult questions as far off as June.
Another
attempt to find a solution to the future of Greece failed miserably, and disagreements
remain high. The general market reaction is likely to remain short-lived, which
would illustrate the limits of the Greek negotiation power. A failure to reach
an agreement in the coming weeks could easily trigger bank runs, ECB liquidity
withdrawal, and even a Grexit. The stakes are thus high.
Greek
crisis talks collapse in acrimony as Syriza defies EMU – The
Telegraph
'The only
way to solve Greece is to treat us like equals; not a
debt colony,' says Greek finance minister
Deutsche
Bank’s What Happened Today, And What Happens Next – ZH
Greek Debt
Talks Collapse. Street Reacts – WSJ
Eurogroup
may figure Grexit doesn’t have to be the end of the Euro – Tony
Yates
Greece and Eurogroup - a Clash of
Democracies – euinside
How To
Trade The Grexit Scenarios, And What The "Worst-Case" Looks Like – ZH
Greek stand-off
– The
Economist
Three
Reasons Merkel Is So Stubborn – View
/ BB
Greek Banks
Need More Emergency Funds as Deposits Drop – BB
As Bank Run
Accelerates, Greek Depositors Pray To Saint Mario – ZH
No end to
emergency funds for Greek banks expected this week –source – Reuters
UNITED STATES
Q&A:
Explaining ‘Audit the Fed’ – WSJ
What
People Mean When They Say ‘Audit the Fed’ – NYT
US:
Revising down H1 GDP growth – Danske
Bank
OTHER
Emerging
Markets Briefer - February 2015 - Danske Bank
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Schlesinger’s
Take: Sluggish Rebound Tests Bank of Japan Assumptions On Growth, Policy Gains *
Fed’s Mester Sees June Rate Increases as a “Viable Option” * Powell Continues
Push Against ‘Audit the Fed’ Bill * Nobody Knows Nairu, and That’s a Problem
for the Fed
Daily
Macro – WSJ
Greece continues to dominate the
headlines. The latest meeting between Greece and the Eurogroup, its eurozone
creditors, finished quickly Monday without resolution. Some commentators see it
as an unsurmountable impasse. Others think it’s just a matter of tweaking
language before an agreement is struck to extend–with some possible
modifications–the current rescue program for another six months. Precedent
suggests a last-minute agreement is the likeliest outcome, though there’s
always scope for accidents to happen.
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Eye-Opener
– Nordea
Greek talks
fail * Fresh optimism about the state of the German economy * USD uptrend
challenged * Short German bond yields at record low
Euro
Recoups Yesterday's Losses, but Brinkmanship Tactics Continue – Marc
to Market
Daily
Shot – TradingFloor
Italy, Greece lead "underground
economy" stats * Disinflation hitting India, South Korea as wholesale prices drop * Ukraine continues its slide into depession
US Open – ZH
Futures
Rebound On Collapse In Greek Negotiations, After Europe's Largest Derivatives Exchange
Breaks
FX
Update – TradingFloor
The
collapse of Greece/EU talks saw the euro on the defensive, but there are hardly
signs of panic as EURCHF remains fairly buoyant on the assumption that a deal
is eventually struck, even as the timetable is very compressed. Eslewhere, the
BoJ is on tap tonight.
From the
floor – TradingFloor
From the
Floor homes in on an interesting volatilities spike in one-year at-the-money
USDCNH as talk on a potential Chinese rate cut refuses to go away. Meanwhile,
the Greece talks may have collapsed but the markets are
unfazed, although bonds expect to take a hit today.
Daily
Newsletter – TradingFloor
Those Greek talks may have collapsed but, aside from a
brief dip in EUR, the markets seem to have shrugged its shoulders and moved on.
EUR can still expect to be under some pressure today though.
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Kreikan pokka pitää – vielä | Tänään luvassa Saksan
ZEW-indeksi | Euroopan korkomarkkinoilla rauhallista Kreikasta huolimatta
Saksan eurovastainen ”professoripuolue” AfD levittäytyy
länteen – Henri
Myllyniemi / PS
Aika loppumassa – kuilu Kreikan ja velkojien välillä
leveni – Henri
Myllyniemi / PS
Vastenmielinen Kreikka-näytelmä – hölmöilyä
eurojohtajilta – Tyhmyri
Arhinmäen keuliminen osoittaa, miten huonosti Suomessa
ymmärretään Kreikkaa – IS
Vain ero katkaisisi brittien ikuisen kitinän – TalSa
Animating
Mr. Market: Adopting a Proper Psychological Attitude – Credit
Suisse