Here are
the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning
week. Last week's 'Support' here.
This post will be updated as new
material is published.
Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
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LAST WEEK
Weekly
Scoreboard – Between
The Hedges
Friday’s
Price Monitor – Global Macro Monitor
Quad-Witching
Thriller: Oil, S&P, Nasdaq Soar As Bond Yields, Dollar Tumble On Economic
Gloom
Succinct
summation of week’s events – The
Big Picture
NEXT WEEK
US Schedule
for Week – Calculated Risk
Economic
Calendar – Berenberg
Economic
Calendar – Handelsbanken
World
Week Ahead – WSJ
Searching
for the Right Reading of Last Week’s FOMC
Week Ahead
– ZH
5 Things
to Watch on the Economic Calendar – WSJ
Wall St
Week Ahead – Reuters
Investors
eye data as stocks approach records
Top economic events - Reuters
Weighing
the Week Ahead – A Dash of Insight
The Quest
for New Worries
Global Week
Ahead – BB
U.S. Home Data, Greece, Ghani, Nigeria
Europe’s Week Ahead – WSJ
Weekly
Market Outlook – Moody’s
Weekly
Focus – Danske
Bank
Euro area survey
indicators are expected to indicate stronger growth. Lending figures should
improve and later be boosted by the liquidity from the ECB’s QE * US inflation
data will be in focus, as a precondition for a Fed rate hike is confidence that
inflation will move back to its 2% objective * UK and Japanese inflation should
decline, but we expect the Bank of England will
hike
despite low inflation and that Bank of Japan will not step up its easing soon *
Chinese manufacturing PMI will be in focus as there is a substantial gap
between the hard economic data and the manufacturing PMI.
The Week
Ahead – Handelsbanken
US: Core CPI up 0.2 percent in February * China: PMI will likely confirm weak start
to 2015
Eurozone: PMI
still on the rise * Sweden: Likely uptick in NIER's March
survey; retail sales growth to moderate * Norway: Small changes to unemployment;
retail sales trend is flat, at best; somewhat lower credit growth
Macro
Weekly – Snail-paced Fed rate hikes – ABN AMRO
The Fed
meeting re-assured investors with the signal that although interest rates will
head higher, they will do so at a slow pace. Indeed, the projections of the
FOMC imply a much slower rate hike cycle than seen historically. This partly
reflects the surge of the dollar, which is doing some of the Fed’s job for it.
We have made some changes to our forecasts. We now expect the Fed to start
raising rates in September rather than June. In addition, our EUR/USD forecast
has been revised lower, while our eurozone GDP forecast has been revised higher.
Week
Ahead: Continued headwinds for the Chinese economy – Nordea
Next week
offers a range of interesting data points, but no major central bank events. We
expect US headline inflation to remain at -0.1% y/y. Chinese
flash PMI will likely suggest continued headwinds for the Chinese economy. Flash
PMIs and the Ifo index will reflect the ongoing gentle pick up in the Euro area.
In Sweden and Norway focus will be on retail sales.
STOCKS
Weekly
Market Summary – The Fat Pitch
Strong
price and breadth suggest the uptrend from the March low has further to go. A
dip early in the week is a high probability buy set up. But gains from here are
likely to be short lived; nibble traders may want to sell into strong gains on
the expectation of weakness over the next month.
CREDIT
Rates: Global
curves are colliding
– Nordea
Recent
months and weeks have been characterized by massive falls in EUR rates and much
flatter curves. The main driver is obvious, but slope levels in the long end
are now approaching those in the UK and US. The question then is, are
we there yet on 30Y EUR swap rates? We think it’s very close at the very least.
Euro
Rates Weekly: Why scarcity of AAAs is getting worse – ABN AMRO
We update
our calculations and conclude that scarcity could be even worse than we
expected * By decreasing its universe of eligible agency bonds, the ECB will
need to buy more govie bonds * Impact of ECB purchases is most significant for
AAA countries, like Germany and the Netherlands * Scarcity could become more
acute as investors could hold on to current investment holdings * Scarcity
could lead to shortage, but the ECB will change the QE rules before that
happens
https://insights.abnamro.nl/download/27983/
Euro
rates update – Nordea
FOREX
FX Outlook
– Marc to Market
The
Dollar's Near-Term Vulnerability is an Opportunity for Medium and Long Term Investors
It's
difficult to say with any certainty that the dollar rally has petered out after
this week's FOMC but next Tuesday's CPI could provide a rallying point. Elsewhere, the
scandies are prominent, JPY weakness might finally come through and there is an
interesting Cable set up.
FX
Weekly – EUR/USD to 0.95 this year – ABN AMRO
The US
dollar sold off aggressively after the Fed, followed by a stunning recovery. We
have adjusted our Fed view and most of our FX forecasts. We expect the Fed to
start rising rates in September. We also now expect the federal funds rate will
rise to 0.75% at year-end 2015 and to 2.25% at year-end 2016. This is a slower
pace than previously expected. Nevertheless given the momentum behind the
dollar and ongoing monetary policy divergence we have revised our EUR/USD
forecasts for this year lower. In contrast, we now expect a recovery of the
euro in 2016. This is because stronger eurozone economic recovery and pick-up
inflation will probably result in financial markets starting to price in a
tapering from ECB QE next year.
COMMODITIES
Precious
Metals weekly – No change in view – ABN AMRO
Large price
swings in precious metals before and after the Fed meeting * Adjustment in Fed
and US dollar views have not led to changes in precious metals price forecasts
* Gold will move lower in 2015 and 2016 because of higher US rates, US dollar
and positive sentiment… * …while platinum, silver and palladium will remain
under pressure in the near term followed by recovery
CALENDARS
Economic
Calendar – investing.com
Economic
Calendar – BB
EU calendar – europa.eu
Markkinakalenteri
– Nordnet
Global
Central Banks Calendar – WSJ
Central
Bank Release Calendar – Daily FX