MoreLiver's Daily: 24th Mar - PMIs show divergences

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EUROPE

No democracy without political union – voxeurop

Gideon Rachman: Growth alone will not stabilise Europe – FT

Fear of immigration and anger at elite corruption, as well as austerity, bolster extreme politics

UK: May election risks derailing GBP – Nordea

The UK general election taking place on 7 May is approaching. It will mark a paradigm shift from two parties to a multi-party government. If the Conservatives succeed and the UKIP joins, the summer 2015 may be hot with the Brexit risks – big headwind to GBP.

UK approaching deflation – Danske Bank

UK inflation falls to new record low – Nordea

GREECE

5 Takeaways From Angela Merkel’s Meeting With Alexis Tsipras – WSJ

Merkel Points Tsipras Toward Deal With Greece’s Creditors – BB

Exclusive: Greece to run out of cash by April 20 without fresh aid-source – Reuters

Soros Says Greece Now Lose-Lose Game After Being Mishandled – BB

EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

The ultimate QE boost – Crédit Agricole

The QE-induced loosening in monetary and financial conditions has the potential to boost Eurozone inflation and GDP growth by up to 1 ppt and 1.5 ppt, respectively, within the next two years.

The confidence effects of fiscal consolidations – ECB

ECB Paper Largely Backs Europe’s Austerity Strategy – WSJ

UNITED STATES

U.S. consumer prices rebound, underlying inflation firming – Reuters

Core CPI supports Fed impatience – Nordea

Consumer Prices Rise Most Since May 2014 – ZH

REGULARS

Daily Central Banks – WSJ

Hilsenrath’s Take: Stan Fischer Sure Would Like to Get Monetary Policy Back to Normal * Fed’s Fischer Supports Foreign Stimulus Efforts * Fed’s Williams: Mid-Year Will Be Time To Start Rate Hike Debate * U.S. Regulators Find ‘Shortcomings’ in Living Wills of 3 Foreign Banks * ECB to Continue Buying Debt Until Inflation Stabilizes

Daily Macro – WSJ

Whereas the eurozone manufacturing sector showed gains, according to the latest “flash” purchasing managers survey from Markit, China’s dropped below 50 again.

Danske Daily – Danske Bank

Global Daily – ABN AMRO

The ECB is running ahead of schedule in its public sector purchase programme * Regional election in Andalusia confirms that Spain’s political landscape has changed * Fed Vice-Chairman Fischer says lift off before end of this year, but no steady path afterwards

Euro rates update – Nordea

Eye-Opener – Nordea

No Greek breakthrough * Weak US CPI expected * More Chinese easing to come * Feds Stan Fischer said economic developments will guide pace and extent of increases * Intra-Euro spread convergence takes a breather * EUR helped by ECB talk

Daily FX Comment – Marc to Market

Ten Things You Need to Know

Daily Shot – TF

Consumer sentiment in the Eurozone is approaching the pre-2008 peak, but higher gasoline prices could dampen it. PMIs in China as well as Japan are in contraction mode again. However, indices are doing pretty well.

US Open – ZH

Futures At Overnight Highs On China PMI Miss, Europe PMI Beat

FX Update – TF

EURUSD is looking at 1.1000 and possibly 1.1100 if we get a weak US CPI release today from the US, after last week’s FOMC meeting increased focus on inflation levels. Elsewhere, weak data out of China overnight failed to hold back the rally of the Antipodeans overnight.

From the Floor – TF

Dollar facing "two-way risk" ahead of US CPI * Negative print could push EURUSD beyond 1.10 to test of 1.11 * FX Options illiquidity worsens in one-month EURUSD, JPYUSD * China PMI miss sends Asian equities down across the board * Corporate bonds stymied as "no breakthrough" on Greece in Berlin * WTI crude stuck in $44-48/b range as downside risk remains ever-present * Copper spike likely to give way as "fundamentals not supportive” * Gold upside capped at $1,193/oz with potential move to $1,173

Martin Sandbu’s Free Lunch – FT

OTHER

On the EUR – Global Macro Trading

Euro in Past Bear Markets – Marc to Market

Robert Skidelsky: Messed-Up Macro – Project Syndicate

As a Keynesian, I firmly believe that market economies need to be stabilized by policy. But Keynesians have to face the uncomfortable truth that the success of stabilization policies may depend on the business community having Keynesian expectations. They need the confidence fairy to be on their side.

Guide to whether or not a robot will take your job – WaPo

Global Asset Allocation Shifts – BIS

We show that global asset reallocations of U.S. fund investors obey a strong factor structure, with two factors accounting for more than 90% of the overall variation. The first factor captures switches between U.S. bonds and equities. The second reflects reallocations from U.S. to international assets.

MARCH PMI

Japan Manufacturing PMI

China Manufacturing PMI

China PMI Decline suggests Q1 growth could decline below 7% y/y – Danske Bank

China Lands Hard, PMI Contraction, Employment Worst Since Lehman – ZH

China PMI much below expectations – Nordea

France Composite PMI

Germany Composite PMI

Eurozone Composite PMI

Euro area: Growth pace picks up – Nordea

Germany Lifts Euro-Area Economy as Stimulus Put in Action – BB

EZ PMIs confirm our view of stronger GDP growth in 2015 – Danske Bank