W/E:
Weekly Support (updated!)
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EUROPE
Euro-area
governance: what to reform and how to do it – Bruegel
Reform of
the governance of the euro area is being held back by disagreement on what is
at the root of the euro area’s woes. Pre-crisis, the euro area suffered from
the built-up of financial imbalances, price and wage divergence and an
insufficient focus on debt sustainability. During the crisis, the main problems
were slow resolution of banking problems, an inadequate fiscal policy stance in
2011-13 for the area as a whole, insufficient domestic demand in surplus
countries and slow progress with structural reforms to overcome past
divergences.
Has the
Eurozone found its mojo? – TF
Volume of
retail trade up by 1.1% in euro area – Eurostat
Euro retail
sales suggest upside risk to our above consensus expectation – Danske
Bank
GREECE
Greece is being forced into purgatory to
save the euro – The
Telegraph
Euro zone
rebuffs Spanish talk of new Greek bailout – Reuters
EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
ECB
prepares to give details of QE scheme – FT
Profit- and
loss-sharing, flexibility of central banks and conditionality behind the length
of the programme.
ECB
preview: The QE begins – TF
Conditionality
of length, absorption problem and negative yields
5 Points
to Watch During the ECB’s March Meeting – WSJ
When Will
QE Be Launched * Watch for Signs of Flexibility... * ...And What Will Define
Success * How Does the ECB See the Economic Outlook? * What Messages on Greece?
This is
nuts, where have all the bonds gone? – FT
Bond buying
on ECB QE, the Greek loan extension and recent growth data in the periphery has
transformed itself into bond hoarding.
Scarcity
of bonds could pose problems for the ECB’s QE – Europp
/ LSE
The ECB
should be prepared, then, to pay higher prices for the purchase of government
securities in order to meet its goal of pumping money into the financial system
of the Eurozone.
This is
nuts. But so what?
– FT
Citi: Is it
a bubble?...certainly has all the typical hallmarks of one…But that’s almost
beside the point, as we think it will last longer than most people’s investment
horizons, leaving them with little choice but to participate. As we see it, the
time to exit is the day that the market starts to doubt the ECB’s commitment to
buying more.
Why ECB
risks running out of ammunition – FT
Constraints
lie in 25% issue and 33% issuer limits on bond purchases
What to
Expect from the ECB
– Marc
to Market
The
operational risks are two-fold. First,
the amount of sovereign bonds that it plans on buying may exceed net debt
issuance for some countries.. A second operational challenge will be in the
reporting of the purchases.
UNITED STATES
FOMC 2009 TRANSCRIPTS
FOMC
Transcripts and Presentation Materials – FED
Federal
Reserve Timeline, 2009 – WSJ
Federal
Reserve Who’s Who, 2009 – WSJ
Live Tour: The
Federal Reserve’s 2009 Transcripts – WSJ
Six Charts of
the Unfathomably Bleak Economy the Fed Faced in 2009 – WSJ
The Fed's 2009
Transcripts Are Out – BB
Fed Sheds
Light on Turbulent ’09 With Publication of Transcripts – BB
The Ultra-Grim
Way Yellen Described the Economy in March 2009 – BB
Yellen in
June 2009: Sluggish Recovery, Low inflation for "few years" – Calculated
Risk
Fed
releases 2009 meeting transcripts – FT
Fed
wrestled with same policy “exit” issues in 2009 – Reuters
Laughter
Slowly Returned to the Fed in 2009 – BB
The 2009 FOMC
Laugh Track: Fed Humor in a Bleak Economic Year – WSJ
Prescient
Yellen saw limits of zero Fed interest rates back in 2009 – Reuters
The fog of
financial crises, FOMC transcripts edition – FT
Yellen’s
bleak outlook in March 2009 – FT
OTHER
[video] Global
economic outlook – The Economist /
Youtube
Where we
are and where we are going / The Buttonwood Gathering: Olivier Blanchard (Chief
economist, IMF), Jason Furman Chairman (President's
Council of Economic Advisers), Stephen King (Chief economist, HSBC), Zanny
Minton Beddoes (Editor-in-chief, The Economist)
REGULARS
Daily
Central Banks – WSJ
Douglas’s Take: U.K. and U.S. Lawmakers Pressing for
More Central Bank Accountability * Yellen Scolds Wall Street on Culture, Ethics
* Shelby Calls for Review of Fed Structure * Warren Warns Fed to Curb its
Emergency Lending Powers Further * India Cuts Key Interest Rate for Second Time
This Year
Daily
Macro – WSJ
Europe seems well on the road to recovery.
Services in most of the major economies are posting solid growth and retail
sales are booming, thanks not least to long dormant German consumers…Global
investors’ concerns now have to some extent shifted to Asia, where we got an
improvement in China’s services purchasing managers’ index and
slightly-higher-than-expected Australian GDP readout – both welcome, but not
quite enough to set aside nagging worries of a protracted regional slowdown.
Danske
Daily – Danske
Bank
Eye-Opener – Nordea
US yields
remain above 2% * Record-high DKK interventions * EBRD to provide financing for
Greek SMEs * EUR/SEK breaks dow
Daily FX
Comment – Marc
to Market
Euro
Remains Heavy ahead of ECB
US Open – ZH
Futures
Slide Despite Latest Central Bank Easing Blitz
FX
Update – TF
This market
remains reluctant to commit to a direction in major USD pairs, likely wanting
to see the incoming US data today and Friday and the ECB
tomorrow before EURUSD can make a bigger move. Elsewhere, we’re making a major
shift in the SEK outlook.
Daily
Newsletter – TF
After a
surprise interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India overnight, market attention now
turns to Eurozone flash PMIs at 09:00 GMT. These will set the tone for the
day's trading in the euro as they'll help shape our assessment of the state of
the bloc's economy ahead of the ECB's quantitative easing programme launch.
Martin
Sandbu’s Free Lunch
– FT
Intellectual
battles over Greece: Athens v eurozone is nothing compared to
quarrelling economists
FINNISH
Aamukatsaus – Nordea
Kiinan kansankongressi leikkaa kasvutavoitetta | USA:n
keskuspankki julkistaa Beige Book-raportin | Tänään saadaan euroalueen
vähittäismyyntiluvut
Ylen Vaaliopas – YLE
eduskuntavaalikevään kaikki tärkeimmät tapahtumat.
Vakaampi talous- ja rahaliitto – VM
Turunen: Ministeriö tuli perussuomalaisten linjalle –
Suomen
Uutiset
Valtiovarainministeriön virkamiestyöryhmä käytännössä toteaa
perussuomalaisten olleen oikeassa, sanoo perussuomalaisten kansanedustaja Kaj
Turunen.
Arvo- ja asennetutkimus 2015 – EVA
Asennetutkimus: Suomalaisten mielestä verotaakka on nyt
tapissa – Verkkouutiset
Stubb täysin vieraantunut kansasta, Soini ymmärtää parhaiten
– Suomen
Uutiset
Kysely: Stubb ei ymmärrä suomalaisen arkea – MTV
EVA: Suomalaisten mielestä verotaakka on nyt tapissa – Verkkouutiset