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Monday, April 13

13th Apr - Bad macro from China



Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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EUROPE
The impact of an exchange rate realignment on the trade balance: Euro vs. national currency - Some preliminary results with a/simmetrie model of the Italian economyIDEAS

Frances Coppola: Optimising the EurozonePieria

Debunking the Causes of the Eurozone CrisisYves Smith

Swiss told to vote again on free movementOpen Europe
Despite the Swiss public voting for restricting EU free movement, the EU has flat-out refused to enter into negotiations on this topic. Open Europe's Pawel Swidlicki looks at the implications not only for the wider EU-Swiss relationship but also for the UK.

Russia’s shocking reboundWaPo
The ruble has climbed 34 percent in just two months

  GREECE
Anders Borg: Why Europe Needs to Save GreeceProject Syndicate
Analysis - Greece may have blown best hope of debt deal – Reuters
Time running out on Greek debt talks, says top EU official – Reuters
"We Have Come To The End Of The Road" – ZH
Greece prepares for debt default if talks with creditors fail – FT

  EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
ECB Tries To Fix Money Markets It Broke, FailsZH

ECB Taper Date "Announced" On Twitter; SocGen Begs To DiffZH

German 10-year bond yields heading below zeroFT

The ECB has expected AD growth right where it wants itScott Sumner

Why the ECB and Germany Are Causing Each Other HeadachesWSJ


UNITED STATES
Flattening Yield Curve Latest Complication for FedWSJ


ASIA
China's March exports shrink 15 percent year-on-year in shock fall – Reuters
China: plunge in exports in March mainly due to Chinese New Year – Danske Bank
Wall Street Reacts To China's Shocking Trade Data – ZH


REGULARS
Daily Central BanksWSJ
Hannon’s Take: Have Central Banks Learned to Distinguish “Good” from “Bad” Deflation? * Richmond Fed’s Lacker Still Sees Strong Case to Raise Rates in June * Minneapolis Fed’s Kocherlakota: Fed Shouldn’t Raise Rates in 2015 * Germany’s Rising Wages Bode Well for Global Economy * China Moves to Strengthen Control Over Its Policy Banks

Daily MacroWSJ
German bonds are rallying ever further, with yields on 10-year debt approaching negative territory… the data out of Beijing increasingly reflect the end of an era of strong Chinese growth. A poor export performance demonstrates the bind that the government is in; it can’t easily resort to a weaker yuan to boost overseas demand.

Danske Daily Danske Bank

Euro rates updateNordea

Eye-OpenerNordea
Chinese GDP to disappoint: Chinese growth likely cooled further in Q1 * Euro-area yields pressured : Zero no longer a fantasy on the 10Y bund yield * The door is open for more EUR/USD downside

Daily FX CommentMarc to Market
Dollar Extends Gains as China's Exports Slump

Daily Shot TF
Chinese growth appears to be slowing, but a devaluation of the currency is not in line with Beijing's hopes for the yuan. Meanwhile, US oil markets are having widespread effects on the country's economy
  
US OpenZH
China Stocks Soar To 7 Year High After Collapse In Exports; US Futures Slip On Continuing Dollar Surge

FX UpdateTF
USD strength has broadened to start the week as AUDUSD and NZDUSD pushed sharply lower on a weak Chinese trade balance release. Meanwhile, EURUSD is trying to make a stand in the 1.0600 area ahead of the ECB meeting on Wednesday.

From the FloorTF
We're not recommending them yet, but Russian equities are blazing a trail and still have some way to go yet, especially if oil fundamentals begin to change. Despite some pickup though, there's no real sign of that yet.
  
Martin Sandbu’s Free LunchFT
What do we know about candidate Clinton's economic policy views?


OTHER
KVP's Macro Take: It's time for India, the baby China, to stand upTF
The coming week sees a flurry of Fed speakers and heavy economic data from the US and China (Q1 GDP) * Probably most anticipated central bank meeting will be from the Bank of Canada * People may have a snapshot of India, but they are missing the big picture


ECONOMICS
*Report to Congress on International Economic and Exchange Rate PoliciesUS Treasury
U.S. warns Europe against relying too much on exportsReuters
Pot, kettle, QEBreakingviews

The limits of monetary policyFrances Coppola
Artificial separation of fiscal and monetary policy cripples policymaking. It is time for monetary and fiscal policymakers to acknowledge their joint role in generating economic growth and preventing future crises.

Wolfgang Münchau: Macroeconomists need new tools to challenge consensusFT
For the moment, the traditionalists still rule -

Outlaw economicsThe Economist
Policies to shift income from rich to poor may prove less effective than imagined

Should we be spooked by deflation? A look at the historical recordvox

European firm adjustment during times of economic crisisECB

Commercial bank failures during the Great Recession: the real (estate) storyECB

Exports and domestic demand pressure: a dynamic panel data model for the euro area countriesECB

Global Financial Market Impact of the Announcement of the ECB's Extended Asset Purchase ProgrammeFED

Financial assistance measures in the euro area from 2008 to 2013: statistical framework and fiscal impactECB

Cyclically adjusted deficits and instabilitySimon Wren-Lewis

Paul Krugman: Where Government ExcelsNYT

Yanis Varoufakis and Joseph StiglitzYoutube

Buiter on the death of cashFT

The True Levels of Government and Social Expenditures in Advanced EconomiesPIIE


OFF-TOPIC
3 Things Psychopaths Can Teach You About Being A Happier PersonBakadesuyo

Watching Rocky II with Muhammad AliRoger Ebert
 “The regular average layman couldn’t see what I see. And the way they’re painting the trainer is all wrong. Look at him there, screaming, Do this! and Do that! I never had anyone telling me what to do. I did it. Shouting at the fighter like that makes him look like an animal, like a horse to be trained.”
http://www.rogerebert.com/interviews/watching-rocky-ii-with-muhammad-ali

The Rise and Fall of the Drexel EmpireBB

The world will only get weirder Steve Coast

Six Strategy TrapsFarnam Street


FINNISH
AamukatsausNordea
EKP keskittyy toteuttamaan suunnitelmiaan |  Suomen teollisuuden alkuvuosi surkea | Inflaatio valokeilassa tällä viikolla

Jan Hurri: Kaksi liian vaikeaa kysymystä vaaleihinTalSa
Vaaleihin on enää viikko aikaa, mutta ainakin pääpuolueet ja niiden ehdokkaat vaikenevat visusti ainakin kahdesta Suomenkin talouden kohtalon kysymyksestä ja todellisesta rakenneongelmasta: euron haitoista ja euroalueen vaivihkaisesta liittovaltiokehityksestä.

Suomen viennin romahdus – ennustettavaa joskin valitettavaaTyhmyri

Suomi: Teollisuuden alkuvuosi surkeaNordea
Helmikuun teollisuustuotanto, uudet tilaukset sekä tavaravienti kertovat karun tarinan. Suomalaisen teollisuuden alkuvuosi on sujunut huomattavan heikosti.

"Velkaantumisen tie voi olla suomettumisen tie"Verkkouutiset
Keskuskauppakamarin toimitusjohtaja Risto E. J. Penttilä varoittaa, että velkaantumiskehitys saattaa suistaa Suomen suomettumisen tielle.

Maahanmuuton kustannuksistaVATT