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EUROPE
Germany Isn't Investing as in the Past and
That's a Problem – BB
Borrowing costs have
never been lower, domestic demand is high. Yet there's little no sign of an
investment boom any time soon
How Putin Is Surviving Lost Oil Revenue – View
/ BB
BREXIT
What did the UK achieve
in its EU renegotiation? – Open Europe
The U.K. Wasn't a Real
EU Member Anyway – View / BB
Open Europe responds to
UK-EU agreement – Open Europe
Cameron Appeals to
Johnson on EU Deal as `Brexit' Sides Line Up – BB
Thanks to Cameron’s
deal, Britain has the best of both worlds – Philippe Legrain
David Cameron starts EU
fight, Boris wavers – Politico
Boris Johnson joins
campaign to leave EU – The
Guardian
Should I stay or should
I go now – Polemic’s
Pains
Boris, Dave and the
battle of Brexit – Politico
June referendum will
forever change UK and EU – Politico
Brexit on the mind – Nordea
Boris’ speech, the fall
in Sterling and identifying the Brexit effect – Tony
Yates
Steen Jacobsen: What
Brexit really means – TF
Why the European Union
will benefit from Brexit – Paul
De Grauwe
Sovereignty and Brexit –
Marc Chandler
UK: To Brexit, or not to
Brexit? – Pictet
UNITED STATES
While the market remains
concerned about another US recession, underlying price pressures continue to
build up. Inflation is not a leading indicator, but the recent readings should
make the Fed more confident inflation is rising towards its target, and thus
support further tightening of policy.
Today’s numbers support the case for further rate hikes by the Fed, even
if March comes too early, and leaves the market vulnerable for another
repricing of the Fed outlook, though not quite yet.
OTHER
A relief for GBP? Bad
news from Europe = good news for EUR. In the bigger picture it is still
"inflation creeping back" environment which is pro-risk for now...
Former HBOS traders made
as much as 800% on asset-backed bonds * Pair bought bonds shunned after
subprime crisis spread to U.K.
Martin Enlund: Global: if no cooperation, then
what? – Nordea
Market participants may
have over-interpreted the negative impact from NIRP on both banks and markets.
Rate spreads still matter for currencies, NIRP or not. ECB is now sending
soothing signals re: bank regulation while opening up for a tiered rates system
which could pave the way for deep cuts. As for monetary policy, if the FX
transmission mechanism is weaker, ECB needs to either over-deliver or to
restore the transmission mechanism (maybe via G20 cooperation?).
Bloomberg News asked
dozens of former and current diplomats, geopolitical strategists, security
consultants, and economists to identify the possible worst-case scenarios,
based on current global conflicts, that concern them most heading into 2016.
Sovereign Wealth Funds May Sell Half Trillion In
Stocks This Year – ZH
REGULARS
Morning MoneyBeat Asia – WSJ
Morning MoneyBeat US – WSJ
Danske Daily – Danske
Bank
Euro rates update – Nordea
Eye-Opener – Nordea
Positive Euro bank news, Brexit vote
set, Johnson weighs on GBP * European PMIs to be hit by recent market
turbulence * A Trifecta of positive news for European banks * Boris Johnson
weighing on GBP
Morning Markets – TF
Sterling has been pushed lower
against other major currencies after Boris Johnson declared he would throw his
political weight behind the Brexit effort. Data-wise the first day of the week
gives us Eurozone manufacturing and services PMIs and mild contractions are
expected across all three main indices.
Daily FX Comment –
Marc
Chandler
Thoughts about the Price Action
Daily Shot – TF
Prices in the United
States continue to grow and CPI is above 2% while in the Eurozone inflation
expectations remain near record lows. Central Banks will act accordingly. In
emergin markets like Venezuela and Mexico governments and Central Banks are
also facing challenges but of a different kind.
Matt Levine’s Money Stuff
– View
/ BB
CDS Fights and Golden
Parachutes
Daily Press Summary – Open
Europe
EU referendum campaign
gets underway with Boris Johnson and a number of MPs backing Brexit * Big
business backs UK deal and Remain vote * European media responds to UK-EU deal
* Germany seeks to apply child benefit curbs off the back of UK-EU deal * Kathimerini:
Merkel sounded Hollande out over Grexit ahead of crucial Eurogroup last summer
* CDU on course for disappointing set of regional election results * New poll
shows Ireland remains on course for hung parliament after upcoming general election
Brussels Playbook – Politico
Boris or David? — Merkel looks into
benefit ban — TTIP talks resume
US Open – ZH
Markets Surge On Chinese Debt Flood;
Worst European PMI In Over A Year; Crashing Pound
Frontrunning – ZH
Cameron returns to the
UK with a weak batch of concessions ahead of a June referendum and popular
fellow Conservative Boris Johnson has come out in favor of leaving the EU. What
to make of sterling’s prospects? Elsewhere EURUSD lingers near support and JPY
remains resilient.
Shares in Shanghai are
up after changes at the securities' regulator which make market participants
hope for more transparency. In Europe after David Cameron's talks with the EU
the possible Brexit is still high on the agenda.
FINLAND & FINNISH
Ostopäälliköiltä
tulossa masentiva uutisia * Britannia ja EU-maat pääsivät viikonloppuna sopuun *
USA:n hintapaineet kasautuvat * Riksbankin kokouspöytäkirja tavallista
kiinnostavampi
Jan Hurri: Seuraava vedätys
on "operaatio suuret setelit" – TalSa
Euroalueen
keskuspankki EKP harkitsee suurimpien euroseteleiden poistamista käytöstä. Se
perustelee aietta rikollisen rahaliikenteen haitoilla ja kiistää jahtaavansa
rehellisten säästäjien rahoja. Kiistää tai ei, käytännössä setelisilppuri
ajaisi käteisrahaa pankkeihin – sopivasti ennen kuin yleisönkin talletuskorot
painuvat miinukselle.
Suomi g-voimien
puristuksessa – Sakari
Heikkinen
Mitä EKP voisi tehdä
maaliskuussa? – Roger
Wessman