Here
are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the
beginning week. Last week’s post is here.
Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
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on Twitter
LAST WEEK
Stocks
Stumble After Best Gains Since 2014's Bullard Bounce
Including
the economic impact of Britain's "Brexit" decision, a roundup of
company news and interviews from the Mobile World Congress and the Bloomberg
Africa Business and Economic Summit.
NEXT WEEK
US Schedule for
Week
– Bill McBride
Week
Ahead – ZH
EU Week Ahead – WSJ
U.S.
Jobs, Super Tuesday, Oscars
As
earnings season wraps up, investors turn to data
Weighing
the Week Ahead – Dash of Insight
This week’s economic
calendar is loaded with all of the most important data. In addition, Super
Tuesday might provide a defining event to the political campaign. Oil remains
volatile, and Fed Speakers are on the loose. Despite the political stories, I
expect the punditry to be asking: Can the strengthening
U.S. economy support the rebound in stocks?
Global: A chillier
feeling - World trade and GDP growth are running out of steam. The IMF and OECD
are calling for a joint effort US: Household
blues? - Surveyed in the midst of severe financial market turbulence, Americans
would be less confident. Still, from retail sales to home sales, everything
points to households being the main engine of growth in 2016. Germany: Businesses on red alert - In
2015, economic activity held up well. The recent deterioration of the IFO survey,
however, highlights the risk of a deep and prolonged slowdown. France: Confidence shaken - February’s
confidence survey results were rather unfavourable and highlighted the downside
risks to growth.
To
Extend Upturn, Livelier Sales Needed
Next
week in the US, we expect Friday's jobs report to show continued improvements
with a 175k gain in nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate at 4.9%, and a slight
rise in average hourly earnings growth to 2.6%. Remember to keep an eye on the
ISM manufacturing (Tue) and non-manufacturing (Thu) surveys. In the Euro Area,
expect low or negative inflation numbers (Mon) to set the tone together with
the ECB's interest rate statistics (Wed). Finally, China's two PMIs will be
released on Tuesday.
US:
ISM figures, payrolls * China: PMI * Euro area: inflation
The
financial turmoil and weaker-than-expected data have taken a toll on the growth
outlook * However, we do not expect a major growth slowdown in the world’s
major economies * In our view, the G20 meeting will not commit to any major
concrete policy initiatives * Global risk sentiment could suffer on the back of
the meetings
Eurozone:
Inflation heading toward negative territory * China: Consensus expects
unchanged PMIs * Sweden: We expect stronger industrial productions figures for
January; we expect Q4 to show accelerating GDP growth * Norway: Still weak
trend in retail spending; lower credit growth
FX Outlook – Marc Chandler
Are the Dollar Bulls
Retaking the Initiative?
Speculative Positioning – Marc Chandler
Small Changes in
Speculative Positioning
Forex
traders would already know like to know what this weekend's G20 meeting and
upcoming central bank decisions bring. Since all is very unclear, we leave this
week with the least sense of market direction we’ve felt in a long time.
Equities
gained nearly 2% for the second week in a row, led by small caps and further
gains in oil. SPY has now rallied to 197, the lower end of the target range we
set in early February. If this is just a countertrend rally within a bear
market, then risk/reward is now marginal. Despite the steep gains in recent
weeks, investor pessimism persists: it would be remarkable if the rally ended
without even a hint of FOMO (fear of missing out). Breadth also suggests
further upside in the weeks ahead. Meanwhile, recent macro data strongly
refutes the notion that economic weakness is the root cause for the fall in
equities.