Here
are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the
beginning week. Last week’s roundup-post is here.
Follow ‘MoreLiver’
on Twitter
LAST WEEK
Rumor
Rescues Deutsche From Banking Bloodbath But Gold Tops Stocks In September
NEXT WEEK
Economic
Calendar – Berenberg
U.S.
Payrolls, VP Debate, Tory Conference * Brexit looms as prime topic as U.K.
Conservative Party meets * IMF and World Bank hold annual meeting; Google
unveils devices
EU Week Ahead – WSJ
A
Deutsche Bank settlement overshadows U.S. equities,
Weighing the Week
Ahead –
Jeff
Miller
We
have a huge week for economic data. The Fed is now on hold until after the
election. The election can still go either way. It is easy to find something to
worry about. That said, the fourth quarter is usually good for stocks. Should
investors look past the gloom?
Bad
inflation: OPEC agrees on cutting production. Oil prices rebound. Mixed prospects
for inflation * Germany: Slowing growth but peaking confidence * France: A
constrained budget
Next
week’s main event is the release of the new jobs report and ISM surveys in the
US, which we expect to support the case for a Fed hike in December. The UK PMI
figures should show a level consistent with more or less stagnation in real GDP
in the aftermath of the Brexit vote. In terms of Euro-area and Nordic data, the
upcoming week will be relatively quiet.
OPEC
supply cut is not a game changer * Protectionism and geopolitics pose risks for
global growth * Core interest rates in Europe to stay depressed despite higher
HICP inflation * Europe’s banking woes are not a EUR negative; expect EUR/USD
to remain in a narrow 1.10-1.14 range * We recommend a structurally underweight
position in equities versus cash
Canada:
Mere suggestions, not facts * US: Assessing growth momentum * Europe: Can
post-Brexit sentiment remain optimistic? * Asia: Battle of the reserve banks *
Latam: Diverging inflation driving central banks * Feature: Monetary policy
decisions in Australia and India
Fed’s
Diminished Expectations Warn Credit
Politics,
trouble in the banking sector and many central bankers speeching are attracting
lots of attention. Meanwhile, eurozone inflation rises, German business
confidence jumps and US data suggest a modest cyclical improvement. Japanese
GDP data: all wrong?
Speculative
Positioning
– Marc
Chandler
Speculators
Make Significant Adjustments in the Currency Futures
Dollar
Looks Vulnerable to Start Q4
Macro Comment – Marc
Chandler
The
start of next week will likely be driven by Deutsche Bank's travails and dollar
funding pressures, which may or may not be related. At the end of the week, the US reports
September employment data.